4th nuts vs 3 barrel, possible turn semi bluff ?
Posted by elyanos
Posted by elyanos posted in Low Stakes
4th nuts vs 3 barrel, possible turn semi bluff ?
CO: $25.07
BN: $25.00 (Hero)
SB: $14.13
BB: $35.36
UTG: $38.78
Rake is $0.83
utg 20/11 aggressive reg, quite tight overall, opening about 15% in almost every position.
Calling and playing this hand multiway is not ideal, but I think it's good enough on the button, though it probably plays poorly against a 15% utg range.
Utg cb stats are 64/71/56 out of a fairly reliable sample.
I don't think he will fire the flop oop too light 3 way, and his range smashes the board, so calling flop seems standard.
On the turn I expect him to barrel close to 100% of his flop betting range, so maybe raising here could be fine but I think the SPR is a bit high. I also have a mediocre showdown value and position, and risk a diamond domination... thoughts ??
I've tried to breakdown his range on the river. He shouldn't have to many higher flushes, however I expect him to check a huge part of his range wich has showdown value or bluff catchers.
He seems to have sizing tells, betting cheaper as bluff or non-nutted, so I don't expect to see a lot of nut flushes in his hand.
I feel like I'm too high in my range to fold river, but on the other hand, he shouldn't have too many bluffs and won't value much worse...
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