4bp MP on dry Axx

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

4bp MP on dry Axx

Blinds: $2.00/$4.00 (6 Players) UTG: $790.40
MP: $681.40
CO: $528.41
BN: $482.00 (Hero)
SB: $433.00
BB: $411.80
Preflop ($6.00) Hero is BN with J Q 9 8
UTG raises to $14.00, MP calls $14.00, CO folds, Hero raises to $62.00, 2 folds, UTG calls $48.00, MP raises to $254.00, Hero calls $192.00, UTG calls $192.00
Flop ($768.00) A 8 2
UTG checks, MP bets $111.40, Hero raises to $228.00 and is all in, UTG folds, MP calls $116.60
River ($1224.00) A 8 2 9 6

UTG is 85/0 over 36 hands, HJ is 22/14 over 36 on Anon site.

Could go both ways pre but would think HJ with 3b iso with most of his strongerish range.

Really hate life otf.

3 Comments

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Phil Galfond 8 years, 5 months ago

I think your squeeze is far too loose. If UTG was 85/50 and HJ was 60/30 it would be a different story, but as is, you have a hand that is likely to be worse on average than each of theirs, and bloating the pot IP is ill-advised.

It's a different story when you're in a HU situation because the SPR will be higher and there will be more fold equity on boards you miss or boards you barely hit. In a 3way 3bet pot, you're mostly just taking your equity against theirs and seeing who flops something, and I don't like your spot.

The alternative (calling) let's you maneuver postflop with position on everyone. I think the squeeze is a clear mistake (which is why I'm harping on it so much).

As played, you definitely have to call the 4bet, and the flop is gross. If the HJ has a read on you that you can 3bet wide, then I go with it. If you're unknown to him or have a tight image, you might need to make a very unpleasant fold :(

Burnsabre 8 years, 5 months ago

Thanks Phil.. I come from an LHE background where I'm 3b happy all the time. Gotta curb that a bit. We were probably 50 hands on anonymous table so probably more unknown that not. He had garbage aces... ... yep.

Unguarded 8 years, 5 months ago

I just wanted to add that I was watching an Isildroon video from this year where he says it is trendy to cold-call our entire range in the HJ vs. an UTG. I believe he did it himself in the video with mid-tier aces. I believe the reasoning is that our range is excessively strong and easy to read when we 3bet an UTG from the HJ as we will be very AA heavy with the rest of our hands being monster kings, double suited broadways, and highish double suited rundowns. So our choices are to 3bet some weaker hands for balance, accept that our range is going to be fairly easy to read, or to just cold-call everything. And of course, another added benefit is that we get to 4-bet reasonably often with 4 players left to act. Not saying this is right since I really don't know, but it is something to look out for and one more reason to avoid squeezing in this spot.

Just as a general player pool read, I would fully expect a guy with reg stats to have AA almost always on Ignition in this spot. Playing around in propokertools, it looks like we still don't have enough equity on the flop if he also does this with double suited kings, single suited broadway kings, double suited broadways, and single suited A hi broadways. We need 18.6% equity, but we will only have 16.38% (10ish% if he only has aces). He would need to be getting very out of line for us to have much hope.

board: ah8d2
Hand Equity Wins Tie
qsjd9c8s 16.38% 479,316 6,15
AA, KK:xxyy, KK$B$B:xxyz, $B$B$B$B:xxyy, A$B$B$B:xxyz 83.62% 2,459,148 6,156

P.S. - I want to be able to just look at this spot and know we don't have enough equity like Phil ;)

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