4bp IP, What to think about on rivers (exploitative)
Posted by sted9000
Posted by
sted9000
posted in
Mid Stakes
4bp IP, What to think about on rivers (exploitative)
BN: $392.40 (Hero)
SB: $123.71
BB: $389.72
UTG: $431.44
HJ: $57.65
CO: $438.85
SB: $123.71
BB: $389.72
UTG: $431.44
HJ: $57.65
CO: $438.85
Preflop
($3.00)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
3
4
7
5
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $4, Hero raises to $15, SB folds, BB folds, CO raises to $48, Hero calls $33
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $4, Hero raises to $15, SB folds, BB folds, CO raises to $48, Hero calls $33
Flop
($103.00)
Q
7
3
(2 Players)
CO bets $80,
Hero calls $80
Turn
($263.00)
Q
7
3
T
(2 Players)
CO checks,
Hero checks
River
($263.00)
Q
7
3
T
J
(2 Players)
CO checks,
Hero bets $138,
CO folds
Final Pot
Hero
wins $256.20
Reads on Villain: Not much, He is playing (2) 1/2 Zoom Tables, had opened 1 of 6 pots, has not limped. Seeing that I have no hands on him I assume he is not likely to be very sophisticated or tricky.
1- I have some SD value, but might have more value by bluffing
2- I think that he very rarely is trying to induce, because he thinks I will check back very often.
3- I think that he might think that I can have a lot of non nut flushes.
4- I think that he might think that I would have bluffed with my weaker hands OTT.
5- I think that he thinks that I won't turn any 2p into bluffs.
I SHOULD BLUFF
6- How much should I bet to rep the hands that I want to and get him to fold the hands that I want him to (2p).
Interested to hear (or read rather) your thoughts...and I just noticed that no math/numbers are in any of my thoughts. This might be a leak/problem.
Ted
Loading 15 Comments...
Ok, so a few numbers could help us here. Combinatorically he's going to have a flush here around 20% of the time. Given the action a flush seems unlikely, but it's certainly possible that he has flushes that are calling but not betting. He will have a straight around 25% of the time. I don't think straights are folding to one river bet very often. He will also have two pair and sets here a decent amount, and it's unclear whether they are calling or folding. I'm basically assuming AA,KK heavy ranges here, with some possible other hands mixed in.
Given this, I don't think you're getting enough folds to have a profitable bluff. It's fairly close though. The hands that are folding are the hands that you already beat, with the somewhat rare exception of better two pair. Additionally, from a GT perspective this isn't the best hand to turn into a bluff since it's going to be good some % of the time. Not sure how much GT comes into play, but a hand like 7654 seems like a better candidate to turn into a bluff.
As played, I think the river bet size is fine. I might make it a little bigger, say around $160-170, but it's a small difference.
I need to ask, if your plan is to bluff, why are you not bluffing the turn? That seems like the best way to represent a strong hand plus a turn bet comes with good stack leverage. Plus you avoid those nasty river check-shoves that way.
If you don't mind could you share how you got those numbers (both the assumptions you made and the process/tools you used)?
As for betting the turn. You could be right, bluffing the turn could be best. However I feel that against a perceived straight forward opponent getting the free information from his river action is valuable....maybe not though (I can't think of a reason it is valuable at the moment). And I think that x'ing back turn is more credible if I am trying to rep a small/medium flush. Agree?
How I got the numbers? Well, some are from my head. I have memorized the basics. Like how often someone will have a flush or straight on certain boards in 2/3/n-way pots. Then I used the Odds Oracle to confirm and add to that a bit. For example, I was curious to see whether it would make a significant difference whether I gave him a range of AA,KK or just plain 4%. It didn't make a huge difference, which points towards the assumption about his preflop 4b range not being all that crucial. I mean, it matters some, but not all that much. If he had a 4b range of 15% it would make a big difference, but that's not really something I assume from an unknown.
I totally agree about the value of extra information if he checks the river. When he checks twice it's very unlikely that he's going to contest the pot. The bet flop & c/r turn line is more common than the bet flop/check turn/c/r river line, so there's the obvious value of checking back the turn.
By checking back turn and betting the river, you're obviously repping a medium flush or possibly a straight. But a medium hand for sure. You've clearly capped your range, and I think a lot of players would notice that. It opens up for a river check-shove bluff with or without blockers, although I'm a bit uncertain of how many players really take advantage of that.
I think it's pretty close either way, either betting the turn, betting the river or checking back the river. Shoving the flop would probably be best as GT pointed out. But those close spots are probably not going to have a big impact on your win rate whatever you do, so it may not matter that much what you do if you don't shove the flop. I know that's probably not what you want to hear though :)
He should assume you're not calling $80 all that lightly.
Moreover, I'm surprised that you don't shove the flop with your hand. You should be ahead of his 4-bet range and there are almost no good turn cards for your hand and you have exactly one pot sides bet left.
This is not a missed bluff spot. If he has many AAxx and KKxx hands in his range you can still have him beat.
Vs AAxx you still have over 54%. That being said it is a good bluffspot since you're at the bottom of your range, your opponent can easily have you beat and there are not many hands in your range that you need to bluff so your opponent should be folding most of his 2 pair and straight type hands.
It also would be nice if you knew something about his calling tendencies.
If you want to sell that you are delayed valuebetting a medium flush then betting half pot like you did is consistent. With potting you rep more bluffs and it is more expensive in case your opponent has a flush or bluffcatches you with AhAK without the flush for instance.
I like every street but the flop.
"About assumption 5, don't you think he has you on some 1 pair hands also?
He should assume you're not calling $80 all that lightly." Good point, I was only thinking that it was hard for me to have one pair when I was holding unpaired hole cards (availability bias maybe), 765 and 543 were the ones that came to mind, and didn't consider paired hole cards.
"This is not a mist bluff spot." What does mist mean?
There are not many hands against which we are better off playing a turn but many against which we play better when all-in. Bluffing better hands is also very difficult.
Might be worth noting my hand vs AA, Q!8!7!6!5!4!3!2 I am 60%
Hand reading and board textures are important here. Two pair and perhaps more so bottom two pair is arguably the most difficult type of PLO hand to play. It's kind of rare for it to be a shove 200 bb deep, but this is one of those spots.
why don't shove flop?
the only hands you're really worried about are top set and maybe any pair plus flush draw and even then u probably have too much hand to fold.
you have blockers against middle and bottom set too. by ramming the flop you might even be able to fold out some made hands that still have a decent chunk of equity against you (unlikely given the bloated pot but it is a consideration).
Be the first to add a comment