4bet pot IP: How to make villain make a mistake?
Posted by EdgeKing
Posted by
EdgeKing
posted in
Low Stakes
4bet pot IP: How to make villain make a mistake?
SB: $51.60
BB: $111.36
UTG: $34.43
MP: $58.62
CO: $159.32 (Hero)
I think this hand doesn't need much explaination to this point, other than we play a competent reg (4bet 2,5-4% here).
We kinda have a luxury problem here in that we smash that board really hard with our COvsMP call 4bet range, SPR is at exactly 1,5.
I am wondering how we can actually make villain make a mistake here when he has just bare AA here (I'm assuming villain isn't balanced enough to check range here so we face ~bare AA a fair propably 90+% here).
My friend wanted to check this hand back, but I think against his range it does not accomplish much as most turns will just make the board more wet and RvR equity from AA will be even worse. Also we don't want the turn to be a 7 or just a blank and him ending up getting it in with 50% or so. My initial though was to bet small, but I can't really see any merits to that either.
So what we are basically left with is potting, which I don't like for the reason how few bluffs we actually have here, the only real advantage of the play would be us turning all KKxx that don't connect here in a bluff as well (yet pretty difficult to find many KK that we 3bet against a tight MP and that don't have much going for them here).
I havent run the numbers but my guess is that we are about 70:30 favourite here RvR and maybe 65:35 if he is uncapped on the flop by his check, and while making him fold 20-30% equity is a fine result in a pot that is 50bb big I wonder if it is possible to maximise our EV here in any way.
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As you pointed out your range hits that board super well.
Therefore I think you can only make villain mistakes by building some history with him on that kind of board.
If you bet your whole continuing range in a size that allows you to jam any turn potsize you put his whole stack at risk without allowing him a showdown all the time (if he never check ships that flop). What I mean is that if you just pot it, every time he finds a call he is also getting to realize his whole equity.
By betting he can call, trying to realize his equity, but you can still profitably jam almost any turn, leaving him at a guessing game again.
If you have implemented that strategy and shown some good hands you can start to try and get folds both OTF and OTT with hands that he would actually have enough equity to call.
The question is if it's worth it in a rather large playerpool where potentially the spot doesn't come up often enough
Hey bb,
Do you think anybody who is playing lower than PLO200 actually checks that flop with a hand that has some backup equity and is not trapping (AAKT,AAJT etc)(Also don't think it's a great idea apart from balance)? I can't remember a regular not shoving those hands in at an SPR this low.
Also, at SPR of 1,5, what betsize are you looking for on the flop that gives us enough leaverage on the turn? Betting 12$ and having 70% on the turnis an option, but then the board is still pretty dynamic, meaning that even our nutted hands(Top2, T986,NFDs+pair) lose tons of it's value and equity on many turns, especially assuming villain is continuing with hands that have some equity and can improve vs that range).
Why I also prefer potting was that he might think that we would bet our toprange (straights,pair+straight and FD, 2pair+gutter etc) for a smaller sizing, so once he can rule those hands out he might give himself the 40% he needs to go broke here with bare/barish AAxx. Obviously only works as long as our nutted hands don't go to showdown or him not noting this hands for some reason.
Honestly ingame I snappot this probably every time.
But that will result in him folding a lot and he's not making a mistake since we crush that board so hard.
If you bet small and he finds a fold you forced him to make a mistake because he's not realizing his equity when given a good price. You can still check back some turns. I doubt he'll just put you all in OTF, as you said betting small looks like a trap and even when a turn seven hits, he can't just donk all in as he's so capped and your not, therefore your not making any incorrect folds or calls.
I also think your not arguing logically; you wanna pot as you think it's looking more like a bluff when really you have pretty much no bluffs in your range and then you make an argument for villain thinking we might bet out strong range small.
As for ppl checking their AA with some backup. I don't think it happens too often.
Well we still could be splitting our range in multiple subranges: one that has 75+ or 80+% against AA in that spot and bet it small and then take the rest of our valuerange which has 50-60% against AA and pot it, with the latter making him make a mistake folding AA as he needs only 40% to stack off, which he will have vs. the latter range. That was what I meant to say, as we kinda of end up coming with 3 ranges to this flop: one that has AA in a shape of about 80:20, one that is about 55:45 and one that is somewhere between 45:55 and 40:60 behind. So by trying to represent the middle range while still putting some hands from the toprange in the potbetting range we could actually make him go with AA as he would have the required equity to go with it against the middle part of our range.
I think often people are too focused on trying to get an opponent to make a mistake in a specific hand. In this situation it will be almost impossible to get the opponent to make such a big mistake as stackingnoff.
What you should be looking at is leading him to make a mistake while playing against your range. This would involve him overfolding his aces with good equity vs hands that you have that don't actually crush this board. So think whether you can have a bet sizing that A) allows you to bluff profitabley in the same situation with a different hand, or B) have him call when you still have more equity on a different board.
Remember if he has a sniff of equity outside aces you will likely end up getting it in either way. So you should be planning your bet sizing with regards to the rest of your range. You should be able to overbluff this spot.
Knowing my 3bettingrange in that spot, I believe it will be pretty tough to find a hand that isn't at least flipping with AA here, it would have to be some KK76ds or AKQJ without FD which actually still have slightly over 40% against the range of Aces he should be checking here. So how are we going to be able to overbluff this spot in a practical way in your opinion?
First off I get your idea of splitting your range now and the different bet sizes you wanna employ.
But I'd do that in spots where you actually have more different groups of hands. As you already said its pretty hard to find pairs that don't have anything to go with them. When we hit a board so hard and our opponent doesn't, in my mind it makes more sense to have one betsizing for our whole range to not give away any further info.
Ofc you can split your range and try to balance it by moving a hand as strong as yours into the potting part. But does that shot come often enough so that you could profit from having different ranges with different betsizings?
When you bet with one small sizing you could at least get him to fold because he has poor visibility with most of his range or to get it in often drawing very slim. It also makes you very tough to play against because even in 4bet pots he might have to pay multiple streets against you oop.
Maybe we have diff definitions of a bluff in this spot.
If i had KKT5 no fd here for some reason, id pot it. In a way im bluffing but its more of a semibluff and were not folding if raised.
If i had something like TT44 no fd id probably bet half pot and fold if raised.
we have 67% vs AAand he needs 37,5% eq to stack off if spr =1.5.
Its hard to say which sizing looks strongest when u bet. Id say a small bet will look like u have some monsters, some bet folds, a pot bet looks like ur never folding, but will mostly be draws and 2p and prob never a str8/set or big combo draw. 66-75% could be a combination of the above.
Depending on our sizing, wed prefer
A) He jams in AA no draw with 27% eq
B) he folds to a tiny bet
C) worst case he xc getting a good price and pot donks non clubs/Q/J/K/T/8
So with that in mind, i dont like potting it, betting hp or smaller might be risky vs a sticky opponent, as he might be tempted to peel and the natural instinct would be to fade the flushing and str8ning cards and donking or calling on a brick (if u shove an off suit 5 fex).
So id prefer 60-75%ish pot bet if u have no hist.
Vs a sticky, or even better a semi spewy opp that thinks ur capable of stabbing with air id bet 33-50% pot and hope he stacks off.
As far as ur range goes tho. Unless ur calling 4bets with AKLLds/ABBL the only compl misses u have will be double pairs no fd or set. And even a weak hand like JT65 no fd would prefer potting it, maximising feq vs AA but forced to gii so potting anything or most of range that u bet makes sense
Regarding he bluffs:
I usually flat both hands (3bet both like 15-30% of the time depending on opener and table), so end up here with a range that has maybe 2-5% of bluffs. Regarding the definition of a bluff in that spot, I'd say for me it would be anything with <50% against AA, so I'd consider AKQJ with no FD as a bluff here as well.
Regarding range (which was the idea behind this thread on how to play my range here):
I am curious though if we can play a checkback/pot strategy here, checking back some hands that can stack off even on bad cards for our checkback range (QT+2pair, our hand or similar, T8+redraw etc) and jamming T876, AQJT, NFDs and basically the rest of the hands we want to get in now. I think this would allow us to bluff some hands with equity (like the KKT5 you mentioned) while checking back our total air (5544, some nutsuit hands with no equity) and still allow us to be delay cbetting turns for a small sizing and following through on rivers. I believe that strategy might cause AA the biggest problems overall as c/c turn after checking back will turn out pretty badly as well as openjamming (or putting in any bets for that matter), while he might believe that our pottingrange might be weak enough to be stacking off AA here (which I don't beleive is the case, but would have to run some numbers).
i agree we are bluffing with KKT5 no fd vs AA if we're betting, but were not gonna fold if he jams so were kinda semi bluffing pushing our draw. JT65 no fd is a better example, bc we could actually b-f KKT5 small vs some ppl
if youre gonna get that specific about your range id recommend plugging in your range in PJ and see how many hands that have less than 37,5% eq vs AA. my guess is that more than 50-60% of your range will want to v-bet vs AA, semi bluff vs AA, protect vs AA. so id rather make the minority of my range adjust to the majority so to speak.
checking back this hand vs villain seems intuitively wrong, so id rather half pot this hand then and half pot my entire range.
the url isnt working in pokerjuice?
well id recommend manually typing in your 3b-call4b range and see how many hands wanna pot-call it off (which id do with probably anything that has 25-33% eq or more vs AA)
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