4b or call?
Posted by spassewr
Posted by
spassewr
posted in
High Stakes
4b or call?
btn is a good aggro reg, prob one of the better ones at these stakes (not counting HS-guys who come down).
3bets me 24% here btn co over a large sample. avg aggression and cb/barreling stats post flop, as in he isnt over aggro or too passive.
bb is a thinking fish, could easily be as "skilled" as btn and I, but just plays too many hands pre, cold calls 3b 44%(43) so far. hes pretty passive and calls down a lot, but keeps strong(ish) hands in his c-c range that most ppl bet themselves.
obv calling cant be bad, is a 4b better? a friend of mine said: "your hand with Ahigh+Khigh suit, snap 4b...but id never 4b your hand...having a Thigh fd in a 4b 3way pot sux".
equity-wise the difference between the two hands is so small vs these guys ranges, so i guess playability will be the deciding factor. obv id rather have A6hhKTdd but is the difference so big we are not 4betting this?
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Yeah agree with your friend. I don't think it's an equity issue, it's a playability issue with Thigh flush and the fact that your blocking second nut diamonds. Your hands strongest point is it's double suitedness, but with diamonds you're unlikely to get major value, and with hearts you're bluff catching.
I think call is best assuming you don't gain a great deal of fold equity by being a preflop 4 bettor (because their giving your range a ton of credit).
At first glance, Given BBs cc stat and button 3betting 24% then I'd prob 4bet and try and push equity pre. After looking at PPT sims for a bit, we don't seem to be pushing that much equity pre. I'll do some more sims and have a look at this spot a bit more. The difference for a K high suit as opposed to T high is 1% so thats fairly significant.
stupid question: how much eq do you wanna push pre flop before 4betting becomes too tempting?
I don't think that's a stupid question at all and I really am not sure. In my sim we were 34 or 35% I think vs two realistic ranges for both players which is significant but not exactly printing money. I don't necessarily think playability is a big issue if you 4bet...you'll have 1.4 SPR or something vs 3 ppl so its going to be hard to make a huge mistake. Having a K high suit for the extra 1% equity might be enough tho from making this a call to a shove.
One thing that might be important is if we no the fish 4bets most of his AA hands first time around. If he's cold calling nearly all aces then that is going to make our 4bet slightly worst.
myea, still dunno how i feel about this hand. obv having 34% eq doesnt seem to be an eq we wanna push, as we will still run into btns AA about 11% of the time but even when we do, i dont think bb will fold all too often which is actually "good" for us, at least compared to 4betting hu and then folding our eq pre or gii as a bigger underdog. 3way ai we are 26-46-28 vs btns AA assuming btn continues with whole range. drops to 25-48-28 if bb folds bottom 66% of his cc range. ai pre vs AA hu we are 34-64....just in case calculations turn u on....
i cant know for sure obv, but id estimate that the avg fish on this site that cold calls 3b with AA is less than 2%, and its usually a tighter kind of fish with a super low pfr and non-existing 3b. this guy is approaching borderline competent LAG-reg-skills.
my issue isnt with the hand really, and whether or not to 4b it....im fine either way...what i have a hard time digesting is that having a K-high suit is sooo much better than a Thigh suit that it pushes it from "never a 4b" to "snap 4b".
guess ill run a bunch of calcs and see how many flops i can stack off on and what my avg eq will be with a Thigh fd comp to a Khigh fd (in other words, how often the Thigh fd will be dominated compared to the Khigh).
ill let u know what i find if ur interested...
thx for responses guys, gl!
hi
i look a little "late" to your post but it is interesting me ^^
in my vision we have to look on their spots all scénarios
I allowed myself to use a replayer a French website that is friendly and who permit to visualize the
hand.
A ‐ calling
pot : 350
your stack is the effective stack (1617) and then SPR will be :
1587/350=4.53 and in a Heads Up situation you'll need 45% if you want to stack off on the flop.
in a 3 way situation you'll need 31%
calling will gives us a 3 way obviously.
using propokertools we can look to differents things.
stats assuming => BU 25% & SB 40%
PQL Query:
select avg(riverEquity(Hero)) /* avg flop Hero equity*/ as AVG_Equity,
count(minHVREquity(Hero,flop,0.40)) /* how often hero will have 40% of
equity on the flop */ as Frequence_hitflop
from game='omahahi', syntax='Generic',
board='***',
Hero='AdKdTh6H',
Bu='25%',
SB='40%'
Results: (37.5%)
We’ll found flop with 40% of equity (to be larger and thinking the fact we are Oop versus BU/3bet)
on 37.5% of the flops.
And also we’ll found an average equity versus their 2 ranges of 32%.
With your hand you’ll have a FD near to 24% (but only half of this equity will gives you a nut draw)
select count(fourFlush(PLAYER_1,flop)) /* How often PLAYER_1 have a four flush on the flop */ as
COUNT1
from game='omahahi', syntax='Generic',
PLAYER_1='AdKdTh6h',
PLAYER_2='25%',
PLAYER_3='40%'
Results : 23.89%
If you hit consistently the flop you’ll have a good equity to stack off and maybe FE on a check/raise
(maybe leading will be great, feel free to tell, it’s your spot ^^ )
Maybe the most interresting or relevant : how often you’ll have at least TP flop. Including all mades
hands (DP/Trips/Straight/flush/….)
select count(minFlopHandCategory(PLAYER_1,FLOPTOPPAIR)) /* How often PLAYER_1 flop hand
category at least toppair */ as COUNT1
from game='omahahi', syntax='Generic',
PLAYER_1='AdKdTh6h',
PLAYER_2='25%',
PLAYER_3='40%'
Results : 43.98%
(changing minFlopHandCategory by exactFlopHandCategory the result is 28% who is the pct of you’ll
hit TP on flop)
Back to the hand now.
On lot of flops you’ll have « something », using the Avg equity you’ll have 32% and more than 1/3 of
times you’ll have 40% (using pql runner copying/pasting the code you can show for 50% changing 0.4 to 0.5 ‐ or what you want)
Then :
Flop :
Pot = 350
On 37.5% of flops you have 40% and you could chose leading/check‐raising/check‐calling or obv fold.
~12% of the time you’ll have NFD and 28% TP => 40% you are with something. More/less…
It’s hard to make maths here but …
telling BB checks and you do the same. Buton cbetting for …. 200$
BB calls or folds (if he goes to a check/raise, you have to estimate his range and your equity).
He folds :
‐ If you’re check raising when action backs to you, something like 600 keeping 900+ on
your stack, your commit and you have to gii.
‐ Check calling : pot become 750 with near to 2PSB left
Checkraise : FE ?
If we assume you have 10% of FE and 35% equity – if buton shoves after your move. (you can use the code and remove SB et put 4% to BU and the avg_result = 0.35
P(folds)*pot(including cbet)
0.1*550=55$
P(calls)*(2567*0.35‐1017*0.65)=>0.90*307.4=237.4
55+237.4=292.4
Ev in this case = 237.4$
The simulation gives us 35% equity on 47% of flops
237*0.47=an avg_EV calling of 111.57
We have to call 75$ and we lose this money 53% of the time
75*0.53=39.75
111.57‐39.75=71.82
Including the times losing the preflop call we make a +EV of 71.82$ and when we miss, we « only »
lose 75$ and not risking our entire stack
B – 4betting pf.we pot here = 425
If both folds :=> +245
If Bu calls & bb folds => same simulation but with new datas. Pot= 960
Effective stack = 1297$
SPR = 1.35 => 36.5% eq needed to stack off (a little more than your avg equity but imo ok with FE)
Using the avg_eq => 32% and again 20% FE. Thinink he won’t stack off with his entire range but close
to his 4/5% strong hands.
960*0.2=192
0.8*(2257*0.32‐1297*0.68)=‐127.77$
96+(‐159.72)=64,22$
We have a close EV 4betting/gii vs shove with calling preflop but a pretty better situation regarding
risk/reward and average equity to stack off.
Ps : if we give him only 10% folding versus our 4bet we have a 4betting/call EV of ‐47.75$
Options are villain depend too.
hoping not to have erred in the way
feel free to comment or correct my words ;)
PS2 : to be comprehensive we have to simulate all situations - call & 3 way/4bet & 3 way
sorry to not doing this now, i'm a little tired :)
haha yea im too tired to read it now, but thank you so much for putting in all that work! ill read it tomorrow
ok, read the whole thing....sry for the delay. ive been running badly and decided to work on my drinking a little more.
thx again for running all those calcs, unfortunately...i cant make out whether you prefer 4betting or calling.
calculating the EV of calling will have so many factors and depend on how well I/they play and perceived ranges so it will pretty much be pointless.
obv calc EV when there are cards still left and money behind is impossible even tho we can make assumptions and create different scenarios.
what we can assume is that btn will fold to my 4b less than 10% and the cold caller, well it could be anywhere from 0-30% (dunno what u wanna cold call a 3b with that doesnt wanna call a 4b in a heads up pot but i see it all the time by fish)
if ive understood this part correctly:
we will flop at least top pair 44% of the time. some of those will be T98-type boards which makes our pair useless unless we have a fd.
we will flop a FD 24% of the time. i checked in the OO to see how often my low FD was dominated ~45% of the time.
so, we will always jam any flop where we have tp/2p that isnt monotone and doesnt have a 3-str8 unless we have a FD.
we will always jam if we flop a FD.
we will always jam trips. we always jam 2p (unless monotone) and perhaps we shouldnt jam some 2p on 3-str8s.
since you are the genius, how many % of flops is that? and what is our eq when called? ill do all the work, if u could just tell me where in the OO you are running this (assuming its OO)?
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