4b bluff profitable ?
Posted by sted9000
Posted by
sted9000
posted in
Mid Stakes
4b bluff profitable ?
SB: $200 (Hero)
BB: $192.22
UTG: $433.35
HJ: $206.70
CO: $700.14
UTG raises to $7, HJ folds, CO raises to $20, BN folds, Hero raises to $69
UTG = 15% RFI, CO 3b (total)= 10% (but estimate it to be around 15% in this spot)
Ran a simple OO sim with following assumptions:
Each player is folding everything but (AA, KK$ds, KK$B$B$NT:xx, KKRR, $0g$ds, $1g$ds, A$B$B$N$ds, RROO$ds), and with those hands I just assumed we were all in pre
So I got:
1 player going with it 40%
2 players going with it 5%
FE = 55%
Equity v 1 player = 42%
Equity v 2 players = 32%
EV = .55(30) - .40(200-(.42)(410)) - .05(200-(.32)(600)) = 16.5 - 11 - .5 = +5
I think that the range I gave them to continue is too tight and they will have some more hands that dominate mine, but I think that the times that they call pre and incorrectly fold flops makes up for that and then some...making the play profitable.
Is my view of the situation too simplistic? What else should I consider?
Would appreciate any thoughts. Thanks
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If his overall 3b is 10, why do you think its higher vs utg? Most people with 3b10 get there from btn vs co and blinds vs btn
Secondly, the ev of post flop fe is (roughly) quantifiable. Assuming they put us on aa we can easily figure out post flop ev by querying odds oracle on how often they have range vs perceived equity of x n flop, and what our equity is when they do.
Not at my computer at the moment tho.
Very interesting....
Ran "How often does player have hand v perceived equity of at least 31% OTF vs AA"
= Only 50%, I thought it was going to be much higher
Even changing opponents range to include all $0g:xx and $1g:xx did not change it.
I think this means that we are going to get away with murder OTF....assuming our opponents will play there hand as if they are always up against AA
Well, when I said "easily" I think I may have spoken a bit too soon lol... I have stuff setup that I can calculate the EV of a 4bet in a HU pot but adapting it for a multiway situation with varying stacksizes... not as easy as I thought it would be.
So many god damn variables, size of the calc in excel more than doubled and not even finished.
Really curious about the way we can properly analyze this spot. I feel like we should add these hands to our 4b range to make up for the terrible relative position but not sure how to run the absolute math (which I think we can figure closely with PPT given the stack sizes and it will be GII or fold on the flop)
FWIW I think that in this spot UTG needs to continue with a tight range since we are leveraging the BU stack of 220bb+ here. This is why I really think that a 4b is great because we force the UTG to fold a lot of hands that have good equity and if we run into AAxx it's not terrible (GII PF) Post flop villain will make some big mistakes against our range (make bad folds on Axx boards, GII dominated against boards we crush, etc...)
"So I got:
1 player going with it 40%
2 players going with it 5%"
I'm not sure how you have the tighter range folding more than the looser range. That doesn't seem right. If your saying UTG goes with 40% of his range, when that happens, CO goes with 5%, that's fine, but you still have to solve for when UTG folds and CO continues either by calling or jamming.
sorry that meant that ONE player is continuing to the flop 40% of the time and BOTH are continuing 5% of the time
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