450bbs deep, turn decision
Posted by plac730
Posted by
plac730
posted in
Mid Stakes
450bbs deep, turn decision
BN: $897.35 (Hero)
SB: $257.40
BB: $247.05
UTG: $215.52
HJ: $1007
CO: $113.24
SB: $257.40
BB: $247.05
UTG: $215.52
HJ: $1007
CO: $113.24
Villian is playing 31/23/16.5, obviously an aggressive regular. He seems to like to c/r flops quite a bit and doesn't seem discouraged to do so even deep OOP.
Preflop
($3.00)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
J
9
8
7
UTG folds, HJ raises to $7, CO folds, Hero raises to $24, SB folds, BB folds, HJ calls $17
UTG folds, HJ raises to $7, CO folds, Hero raises to $24, SB folds, BB folds, HJ calls $17
Flop
($51.00)
Q
5
6
(2 Players)
HJ checks,
Hero bets $30,
HJ raises to $111.53,
Hero calls $81.53
Standard b/c I think.
Turn
($274.06)
Q
5
6
4
(2 Players)
HJ bets $162,
Hero raises to $757.26,
HJ folds
We turn the nuts which is great. I was tempted to flat the turn again to try and induce a river shove. However, nearly half the deck either pairs the board or brings a club, so I decided to save myself the trouble and jam. The problem with this is that once I jam I should have only 78 here and he should be able to play perfectly vs it. Calling when he has QQ+clubs or the 78 himself, and folding everything else.
Final Pot
Hero
wins $595.26
Does anyone flat the turn again? If so how what would your plan for board changing rivers be?
Loading 5 Comments...
Hmm. Well, I think you should have a semibluffing range on this turn(especially vs that sizing). Because of that, I think we want to be jamming some of our straight combos. I'm not positive on that though. There is something to be said for calling your entire range on this turn and taking rivers with a wide, well protected range. I'm not sure whether the immediate value/protection we gain on turn by jamming outweighs sacrificing our protected river range+gaining from his bluffs or thin value.
I'm almost positive you should be jamming some combos/calling some combos though.
On this board texture the 4 completes 87 so often when opponent c/r's the flop that I'm not sure we really want to be semibluffing much at all. Exception being a set with clubs which has close to 50% equity.
Right, I agree this is a good card for their flop x/r semibluffs. However, you usually get to the turn with a couple combinations that have good blocker potential plus equity when called that would fair better jamming against his turn sizing than calling. Maybe a hand like AQ77+bdfd or AQ97 w/ clubs. And based on his sizing, which seems a bit weak, I think you get more folds than had he bet something like 180-200. I feel like when he bets larger on the turn, you might be less inclined to take those spots, so you should be less inclined to shove a lot of your nutted combos.
I would seriously think about 3betting flop small, b/c is OK but often leads to spot where villain plays cautiously on turns we bink. Moreover, if he c/rs a lot, we should be bet/3betting flop a decent amount with dominating hands and bluffs.
Think turn is higher EV as a flat in a vacuum, unless you expect him to bet/stackoff naked Queens up and worse. If you think he checkraises an inordinately high amount, letting him barrel is often a good idea.
i think this is a super easy flat i dont think he is betting turn with sets his hand could be something like 77xx which will barrel river 100% , i'd flat turn and never fold
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