http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/19359754_370BAE2ACE
Btw the hand is against a random but i'm also curious what would the play be against a good player that notices us underbluffing in spots.
So my analysis of the hand is the following:
1st i cbet flop larger cause we're super deep and i am stronger since we're 3way so my value range would be AA+nut gutshots, AA+oesd, all sets and AT89, AT7, KT98 with bdoor fdraws KT7, Qt98+bdoor fdraws and QT7. I have some double pairs some premium TT and 77 since we're so deep i don't care if he's utg. My draws otf are all J98+ T986 and 9876. So my nut flushdraws ott are all combos of (KT7x, KT98, KJ98 and AKT7)
Now i think these hands should do the following:
KT7 should bet fold and checkback unimproved
KT98 should checkback for a few reasons:
if he has ace he's not folding and we're not getting value otr also we beat most his Tx 7x and block a lot of draws
His calling range on a flush river will be mainly other flushes and with him calling a large flop bet otf, turning backdoor fdraw vs a bigger bdoor flushdraw ott will happen so rarely that we don't need to have all our nutflushdraws ott it also makes raising river possible on a flush. Also if we don't checkback this, we have super few flushes by the river when chosing this line.
KJ98 bet and checkback blank river
AKT7 bet and bet blank but you're not getting called otr almost never.
same play goes for all combos of those hands with a Q instead of the K and also the J.
So we clearly have a lot of value by the river and very few bluffs, That's why i think to weaken our betting range we need to bet QJ98 without any spades. It also has great visibility otr and gets called by a lot more draws than our spades hand. It did bite a big fucking chunk of my bankroll so in my heart i wished i checked back and that also makes me a bit biased and have clouded judgement but then we would not have this beautiful spot to discuss :)
Oh and btw... after i bet no folding right? i'm 100% sure he c/c all his AA otf and i think he 4bets quite few of them this deep. So against AA, or ATT... we've got like 40% A improved our draw making K good also.
I just realized after writing that wall of text that this hand could have 2 far better reasons for betting: 1 you're giving up on 70% of the pot, you won't even be able to bluff spades, his checking range should have a lot of medium flushes, and 2. you're never getting paid when you hit :D
I should stop playing deep PLO... it's swingy.