4-bet AAds hits terrible flop
Posted by StaticVoid
Posted by
StaticVoid
posted in
High Stakes
4-bet AAds hits terrible flop
CO: $2086.97 (Hero)
BN: $1975
SB: $1086
BB: $7612.82
BN: $1975
SB: $1086
BB: $7612.82
Small sample on button but over 33 hands VP 74/PFR 47/3B 33.
Preflop
($30.00)
(4 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
A
8
4
Hero raises to $40, BN raises to $100, SB folds, BB folds, Hero raises to $330, BN calls $230
Hero raises to $40, BN raises to $100, SB folds, BB folds, Hero raises to $330, BN calls $230
BTN has been raising quite aggressively so I think I should have just opened this up to 3x so my 4-Bet would be a bit bigger.
Flop
($730.00)
8
K
2
(2 Players)
Pretty much the worst flop for my actual holding although it hits my range.
What are my best options. Is this one of those hands you just have to suck it up and C/F? How about leading out < 50% pot? How about potting?
Any thoughts are appreciated.
Loading 14 Comments...
hi
on this locked-down boards - potting is not necessary.
here if you have nuts are you realy interested by potting ?
you have 3 streets to put your stack on.
then potting isn't the best option here.
with more hands versus your opponent it could be an interesting option knowing how he is playing regarding size bets calling wider on small bets -floating or chasing poor equity.
my concern here is to be balanced nuts/air (or somethink with a polarized equity such an overpair with backdoors).
another thing, he haven't ever flush here or set or another (but not a lot hands) hand with a good bluff catcher or good equity.
for me cbetting small > potting here
and without informations about villain i'll play the hand as if i have fold equity
with a lower SPR potting will make more sense imo
I am guessing check-calling would be the worst of options
Yea disregarding balance i font see the point. If we have a low flush or 2p+ i guess we may wanna check so we could check this too i guess? But most opps will expect u to bet close to 100% so when you check and he bets we are just lighting money on fire.
The intention to x-f flop but bluff/protect turn if he checks back since he would bet almost his entire value range i think is a cool option tho. As validand pointed out, we dont have quite as much feq as i thought.
Still vs opps who arent floaty/creative move makers betting small w close to 100% of range will show a profit.
i was in the exact same spot yesterday with AAT7 no blocker/flush and got a K84ddd flop :)
potting is suboptimal vs any1, altho profitable vs most.
gave him this pre: $3b15i,$fi20!AA ~25% of hands.
How often does villain have:
Flush: 29.4%
Trips: 8.5%
K8/K2 (no trips+): 5.6%
82 (no K2+): 0.1%
Top pair (no 2p+): 16.5%
a PB cb would need to be profitable close to 50% of the time and most would only continue with K2+ ~ 43% of the time. A half pot cb only needs to work 33% of the time to be profitable.
Since most ppl will have an inelastic continuing range, a half pot or smaller bet will show a bigger profit.
Vs most, you can half pot your entire range and shut down ott (exception being sets/low flushes perhaps). Vs some, you can and should continue bluffing if u have the NF blocker. and thats that, most players are unwilling to float with non 2p hands here and theres not a lot of other stuff he can have (it would be different on lets say a JT5dd board where some ppl may float with str8 draws).
The dude i played vs yesterday is pretty good, and very aggro and capable of making moves and the board was a little diff (K84ddd) so I realized i need to be balanced vs him.
Has any1 done any groundwork in this spot beyond the flop? Vs a good player being balanced otf wont be enough (we cant always x-fold when we check turn for example).
couple of thoughts
-you never win the pot when he has the Ad in his hand, and your hand category breakdown doesnt account for bare Ad combos.
-he prob peels one with hands like KxQdxx vs your likely sizing and you dont get to barrel turn almost ever.
neither of these are big enough to make his continuing range >67%, and so 1/2potting will remain profitable, but they are factors worth considering if only to not omit them when running closer sims in the future. on the other side of the coin, your situation is not exactly the same since you dont have a blocker to top two/middle set.
re-simulating it, I get 31.5% flushes (assuming zero diamonds in your hand), 12.3% sets, and 11.3% 2prs, not quite sure why results are so different since I used exactly the same ranges. I also get 3.6% bare Ad and 2.1% KxQd!dd hands, for a total continuing range of 60.8%. Changing your 7 to an 8 reduces that figure to 57.7%.
as for the more complex postflop stuff, i guess you'd better hope someone makes a video about it :)
edited to add - i think maybe the diff in sim results can be accounted for by the dead cards in your hand? if you just run a query for how often he has various types of hands given preflop, but without also considering the reverse blocker effects of your hand, then obv he'll show up with all the hands that connect with this board slightly less often.
hey, i don't play PLO much, but this seems to be a x/f no? even 100bb deep
I think you need to bet to protect your equity/prevent yourself from getting rebluffed, and you're going to need some bluffs to go with the times that you flop the nuts on a monotone board. Just make sure you aren't overbluffing this board.
I'd bet no more than half pot as you don't need to bet bigger with the nuts or the nut blocker in order to barrel off.
How do we proceed on most turns?
against most you're going to have to x/f without improving since you
have no blockers and he's unlikely to float air in this spot. You'll
have plenty of blocker bluffs to continue with so we don't have to worry about having only value on bets on the turn.
against some particularly floaty regs I very occasionally would fire another small bet in this spot, but those players are playing very exploitably loose so I tend to bet smaller on the flop with my whole range (like 1/4 pot) to encourage their gamble and then fire a wider range of bluffs on the turn to punish their tendency to peel.
Do you ever go into C/C mode? If so, how do you balance that range?
I guess if we hit top set on the turn x/c'ing wouldn't be the worst option, although I think it's a fairly transparent play that will allow our opponent to play well against our actual holding. trips could work as a x/c, because a lot of his turn betting range will be skewed towards KKxx and air, so we actually induce some bluffs.
but I probably keep betting small with my top set, and I guess x/c'ing trips seems ok against some.
You don't need to bet any more than about $250 / 1/3rd pot with your entire range here. You have enough nut flush in your range he can't really do too much about it.
An analysis I did a couple of weeks ago of a pretty similiar spot:
http://www.evernote.com/l/AXDrY7ZhPbNDLYq7VfVLgtftw1Z3mmhjr0I/
Very nice
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