3bet pot with a bluff catcher
Posted by joseph ressler
Posted by
joseph ressler
posted in
High Stakes
3bet pot with a bluff catcher
BN: $2069.89
SB: $2722.62
BB: $5203.35 (Hero)
SB: $2722.62
BB: $5203.35 (Hero)
Preflop
($30.00)
(3 Players)
Hero was dealt
8
A
A
9
BN folds, SB raises to $30, Hero raises to $100, SB calls $80
BN folds, SB raises to $30, Hero raises to $100, SB calls $80
Flop
($240.00)
5
6
Q
(2 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $160,
SB calls $160
Turn
($560.00)
9
(2 Players)
SB bets $558.50,
Hero calls $558.50
River
($1677.00)
2
(2 Players)
SB bets $1675.50
He steals from the sb 55% and only folds to 3bets 12%
He check raises the flop 24% and folds to cbets 38%.
He check raises the turn 19%.
His river aggression factor is 9.3.
With the above information:
I think we can take him off strong draws like pair + opesd + fd and most two pair combos, on the flop.
Also, I would expect him to check raise turned straights probably at least half the time or at least consider it (he snap donked the turn and river). He def could be value betting Queens and nines, maybe even sixes and nines but i do have a nine blocker which makes those hands less likely.
So do you guys like a call here? What do you expect to see? Also I would be curious to know which of the above stats you find the most useful in this spot. Thanks.
Loading 12 Comments...
The reason is I feel that once you call he's just going to bomb the river a whole lot. And given your read he's probably capable of showing up with a wide range of value hands which makes me not wanting to call.
I think the 9 on the turn combined with his lead makes it pretty likely he actually has a straight.
- I think he's not potting a naked Khi flush cause he has too much to lose when shoved on.
- He has a bunch of SD value with Qhi flushes. So he's probably checking them too on the turn.
- You block a 9, making it less likely the 9 specifically helped him, making it more likely he hit a straight.
He could lead some other weakish flushdraws, but I don't think those are a lot of combo's.
His range for check/calling the flop should be pretty strong, so that combined with above assumptions makes it hard for me to come up with enough bluffcombo's.
On the turn he leads because he does not want to c/c or c/r, or thinks he cannot c/r because you are not going to bet. To start with the latter, I think he expects you to bet this card on the turn, since it does not necessarily completes much of his range which makes a bet with 100% of your flop betting range reasonable. SO, he did not want to c/r. Strong hands like 87 and Q9 are out of the window. His range for leading the turn is therefore strdr: 34, 47; pair+inside strdr: 57, 58, 67, 68; pair+ better strdr: QJTx, QT8x; low two pair: 56, 59, 69; weak fldr, possibly with a 9. Given this range, when you raise his lead you can expect calls from worse (QJTx, QJ8x) and folds from better (56, 59, 69). So raising turn seems to be the play.
As played, the river card probably does not improve the part of his turn range that needs improvement a lot (only 34 and some odd two pair combo), and given his aggression factor he is betting a lot of times both his weak two pairs as well as his unimproved hands, hence a call seems plus ev (more than 33% right). I assume his betsize on river is allways pot, otherwise you have to develop a bet sizing tell for him.
Ps. Your Cbet% Turn and your 3b% bb vs sb might influence his choosen turn line. If your 3b% is very AA heavy, his range contains more bluffs. If your cbet% turn is low, his leading range contains more valuehands.
Shoving:
I didn't really consider this because lately call/evaluate (when deep) has been sort of hammered into my head. Anyways, I played around with this idea using the assumption villain has three types of hands; Value hands where I have 30% equity, semi bluffs which I have 65%, and Blocker bluffs where I take down the pot 1120 + 200 ( Im going to add a bit more equity here because some of these hands like 7754, qj88, etc could likely spazz call off). Against the Value hands and semi bluffs I will be risking 2440 to win 3560 (i might of rounded these who cares). So as long villain's turn insta donking pot range after calling a 3 bet and ch/calling Q56ss flop isn't for straight up Value 67.8% or more of the time then shoving is profitable! I think it's safe to say that shoving is an easy profitable option in this spot.
Now how profitable exactly is shoving? Well if villains donking range is 50% value hands we will be making 14bbs and villains donking range is 10% value hands we will be making 57bbs. So depending on how we are weighting his value range we rate to make 14 to 57bbs. Not bad.
Evaluating the equity of calling is much more complicated. These are my less precise thoughts. Drastic board texture changes are going to both greatly benefit us (we have nfd, gutty, and overpair) and also encourage villain to continue betting with either his improved hand or bluff. On blanks like the one that came villains optimal bluffing frequency is gonna be 33% but when I call and this specific villain has initiative with uncompleted draws how often will he actually be bluffing?
How does Villain perceive me?
A lot of people asked this question. Im not too sure and don't think it's that important the villain is just playing his game. I think we can assume he thinks im aggresive not for actual reasons just because I am at all his tables and 3 bet him a few times, i doubt he is using a HUD so probably all the info he has. I guess read into that what you will.
When starting the thread I asked what stats people like to use most in finding a solution here and nobody really responded directly to that ARG!? Instead alot of people stated that the villain ch. call flop to donk turn indicates made hands not draws given the information of our nine pairing and him having a propensity to want ch.raise for stacks with combo draws. Those points didn't really hit home with me especially given his high aggression factor so if you could explain why you think that it would be helpful.
Thanks for taking time to answer in the thread!
Regarding bluffing frequncies he should be bluffing the turn 5 times for every 4 times he has it and following up on the river 2 of the 5 times. And you should be calling with half your range on both turn and river. But in my experience people follow up on blank rivers too often, making it a good spot for us to slowplay (if possible). So, as played I don't think a pair of Aces and one straight blocker fall into the top 50% of bluff catchers and I would probably fold against an unknown. I you have a read that he is very unbalanced and bluffs too much I think calling is ok.
I guess he's shoving river almost always when you just flat turn, but I don't see what we can do about it other than call with the nuts in spots like these.
hero calls [$1675.50 USD]
villain shows [Ks, 5h Th 3s ]
hero shows [8d, Ac As 9s ]
hero wins $5026.50 USD from main pot
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