3bet pot BvB - can we valueshove river?
Posted by EdgeKing
Posted by
EdgeKing
posted in
Low Stakes
3bet pot BvB - can we valueshove river?
BN: $21.22
SB: $49.51
BB: $50.75 (Hero)
UTG: $78.99
HJ: $194.85
CO: $51.88
SB: $49.51
BB: $50.75 (Hero)
UTG: $78.99
HJ: $194.85
CO: $51.88
Preflop
($0.75)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
8
A
A
7
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, SB raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $4.50, SB calls $3
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, SB raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $4.50, SB calls $3
Flop
($9.75)
8
K
4
(2 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $4.90,
SB calls $4.90
Turn
($19.55)
8
K
4
4
(2 Players)
SB checks,
Hero checks
River
($19.55)
8
K
4
4
8
(2 Players)
SB bets $15.15
Villain is recreational LAG, opens SB 38% while openlimping 25% of his SBs as well. 4bet vs BvB 3bet seems reasonable but no sample.
OTF he folds a fairly low amount in 3bet pot, also c/r 30%, so his c/c range is fairly weak (or possibly polarized), which is one of the reasons I decided to cb this turn as there are no real draws out there as well. The fact hat his river probe is at >70% over a decent sample also speaks for it.
Now the question to me becomes whether we can valueshove the river with A8 here or is it to thin? Given his probe and his fold2flop cbet in 3bet pot he can be betting all 8x and 4x, but i'm not sure whether he calls all of them if I shove. If I shove he'd get pretty much exactly 3:1 there.
Loading 4 Comments...
Problem with shoving is that he must be really bad to call it off... I don't remember if i ever but if he is, I will go for it :D
I just don't remember the last time I saw someone bluffing in a spot like this.
I don't see him bet/folding any 8x with this sizing. He can sometimes wake up with K8 or better, but his preflop range should have lots of weaker 8x as well that we beat. That said I don't mind jamming here at all.
I think K8 is very unlikely given his c/r frequency in 3bet pot, so that said it becomes a pretty clear jam?
How many hands do you have on him? Generally I'd bet the turn, I think you lose a lot of value by checking, especially with the 4 counterfitting all his 2pair outs, and yet he is never folding a K.
As played I'd jam if he is somewhat bad.
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