BB 27\18. 3b 7.5  7.1 from BB. big sample

Cb 3b pot 78% OTF. 48 OT. wtsd 24

floating flop is std pretty much (is it?)at least fold is bad and we can GII against better hands only (at the same time FE seems to be decent as he folds to raise 58%)

Turn. first intention was to bet. but his range should include tons of broadway cards that hit that flop hard and turn just improved his range. he could easily go for c/r here w\ sets and JT. so bet-folding we throw away too much equity I decided to check as this way we even more credibly can represent spades OTR. also diamonds could be used as bluff cards if he gives up too much after 1 barrel (seems like he does)

river. don't think is any other way to play it. 12.5+21.7=34.2  12.5\34.2=0.36. we need him to make a fold 36% of time to make it money from this bluff.