3b Pot Flop Analysis
Posted by TJ Serdar
Posted by
TJ Serdar
posted in
Low Stakes
3b Pot Flop Analysis
100bb eff. 6 handed .25/.50
BB is tag, 3betting 5%, but picks his spots well. I'd expect he's ~10-15% here.
100bb Eff, folds to Hero in SB who opens Qc9c8s5d, BB 3bets to 4.50, I call
Flop Jc8s7c(9.00)
I ch BB 6.00
Pre
I assume no one has beef w/ pre, but just in case, I have 42% equity vs a tight range, and distribute equity fairly well. ~40% of the time I flop enough to GII. That coupled with the flops that just suck for his range and I get to win, I think I'll be making money relative to folding.
Flop
My primary question here is, against someone who we suspect to be c-betting fairly polarized, and maybe too tight of a range(ie: not betting dry over pairs, not bluffing enough w/ AKQT/AKT8 type stuff), what's the best line w/ this hand?
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How come there are two 8 of spades in a deck? :O I'm assuming you had 8d instead of 8s, but can't be too sure.
If he's a good TAG, you can actually find a fold preflop imo. Since its bvb the SPR will be higher than in a different 3b pot situation and your hand's playability will be pretty bad postflop against his top 10-15% 3bet range. (this is assuming you had Q985s, if you actually had Q985ds disregard)
If he cbets like you say, I'd say its an easy check/call and reevaluate on turn. This hits your perceived range pretty well, so he shouldnt get out of line on later streets
I feel like we see two different strategies here.
One being someone who cbets range here. Against that person, he has a lot more bet/folds in his range, and a good chunk of the hands that do bet/fold are beating me right now, so x/r seems most attractive vs them.
The other is someone c-betting a more polarized range of clear bet/gii's, and his best bluffs. Vs a range like that, his folding range already has very little equity vs me and I'm probably in the low 40's vs his GII range, which obviously isn't terrible. I need 45% equity before FE so x/r gii should be +EV. Whether it's better than x/ca is basically my question.
I would not open a BN range (where Q985ss falls into) vs BB TAG. Overall preflop stats can be misleading. I expect a solid TAG to defend 60%+ of his range with 3b 15%+ vs SB open. It is likely villain hits a lot more boards than you expect. Some negative implied odds here. I agree on calling the 3bet, though it is marginal with a 4 gapper. OTF I would ch/r get it in. You have 3 nut outs. All nn outs improve your hand to a bluff catcher. That's a bad thing theory wise, since you should not be able to win any fraction of the pot if villain bets balanced. Imho you need some strong reads how villain reacts on different turn cards before check/calling.
What's your SB steal frequency? If your folding this it's gotta be like 40.
I need some post flop reads to start playing this hand OOP mainly because you are going to be in a lot of high SPR situation OOP with non nutty hands, bump the 5 up a few ranks and it's an easy open. Typically I would actually peel on the flop and be looking to x/r a lot of turns against most players here.
However given the question against players that are not over cbetting this board I would be donking in order to realize some fold equity and protect my hand. If you think that he is only raising the hands that crush us (pairs with better FD, nut straight, Top set). Than you just need to learn how he reacts to donking (does he start to raise light hands or just the premium hands, what hands are included in his calling range, etc...) Also we do not want the flop to check threw when we are at an equity advantage against all those hands that we figure he is checking IP (AA, KK, weaker hands than ours, etc.)
I view folding preflop (either time) as a big mistake. Whether you choose to open limp or to raise depends on the BBs tendencies and your game plan, but the only type of player that would make me want to open fold this is a player who has a massive skill advantage over me.
On the flop, I think you have a very easy x/c. Future streets may get tough for you, but that doesn't turn a perfect calling hand like this into anything else.
In the first example of this (http://www.runitonce.com/pro-training/videos/sira1/) video André Santos explains how he would split his range on T97 2fl. - It is not exactly the same spot but quite similar. - He is ch/calling with hands that have SD value and/or can make the nuts (high OP+FD, P+NFD, TopTwo...). The ch/raising range consists of all the strong made hand + redraw stuff and basically draws without SD value. Since I think our pair has no SD value and we have no NFD and no toptrips outs I would stick our hand into the ch/raising range.
On Jc8d7c our Qc9c8s5d has 42% equity vs a value cbetting range of 15%6h:((AA,KK,QQ,TT,99,J,8,7,QT,Q9,JT,J9):cc,cAc,JJ,(88,77,J8,J7,87):(QT,Q9,cc,JT,J9),T9) At an SPR of 5 villain needs to bet/fold very rarely to make a ch/shove profitable.
What are the benefits of ch/calling?
I was thinking that as well. FD+2gutters+midpair with only 100bb to start the hand intuitivly seems like a very happy x/shove.
I think the reason for x/calling here is that we assume villain to cbet a very polarized range on this board (strong made hands, nutty draws, combos vs. hands that didn't connect much at all). So what we do by shoving is getting in our stack as a dog vs those hand and winning a small pot by folding out the weak hands (that will obv not autocbet that wet of a board). By x/calling we keep in his entire range and therefore don't get it in as a dog vs better hands. Thats how I understood the whole discussion.
Still, with 100bb and some FE I would've shoved this tbh but I guess that wouldve been inferior to calling since I very much trust Phils abilities over mine. :)
I'll plug in some ranges into PPT later and maybe then I can figure this out.
Phil how do you think SPR plays into this situation? There should be some threshold where x/jam becomes clearly better than x/ca and vice-versa. In real time, I thought that when SPR got around ~7 or so. At spr 7 or above, when we x/ca flop, turn SPR is such that we can leverage our stack pretty well vs his turn bets and it also gives him a tough decision weather to jam or x back some of his mediocre holdings that can't b/ca. In this scenario we have a better chance or realizing all of our hands equity or potentially generating more fold equity with a turn x/jam. This line will also be consistent w/ how we'll be playing our value range @ this SPR.
unbuwoha: the benefits of check-calling include not getting allin vs his value range which overwhelmingly consists of better pair+better FD and made straights
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