3b OOP, slow down on A-turn and firing river vs 'capped' range
Posted by JimmyGlass
Posted by
JimmyGlass
posted in
Low Stakes
3b OOP, slow down on A-turn and firing river vs 'capped' range
CO: $44.50
BN: $71.70
SB: $211.33
BB: $55.72 (Hero)
UTG: $60.56
HJ: $96.37
BN: $71.70
SB: $211.33
BB: $55.72 (Hero)
UTG: $60.56
HJ: $96.37
vill is 20\13 pretty tight pre
open BU 31%, fold vs 3b 21%
wtsd 27%. fold vs cbet ~35%(3b pot) 13% - OTT (also in 3b pot)
3.2k hands
open BU 31%, fold vs 3b 21%
wtsd 27%. fold vs cbet ~35%(3b pot) 13% - OTT (also in 3b pot)
3.2k hands
Preflop
($0.75)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
J
7
Q
9
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $1.75, SB folds, Hero raises to $5.50, BN calls $3.75
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $1.75, SB folds, Hero raises to $5.50, BN calls $3.75
Flop
($11.75)
9
T
4
(2 Players)
Hero bets $7,
BN calls $7
Turn
($25.75)
9
T
4
A
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BN checks
River
($25.75)
9
T
4
A
2
(2 Players)
Hero bets $13
pre. 3b, I assume the hand is fine for it (to balance AA,AKK and such combos) and we have decent pre foldequity
flop. bet - intending to b/c, obv.
turn. what really confused me here (but probably shouldn't) - his 13% fold vs Cbet OTT. And I wasn't able to figure out a) which sizing I should go and b) what river cards (except 8\K) I should shove.
river. he checked back rather quick, I decided he doesn't have an ace, or at least not too often 2pair w\ an ace, so if I fire its tough for him to find a hand to call +big chunk of his hands - QJ,8J or some KK7J according to flop\turn play
how would you play this one?
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I think this hand is a little weak to 3bet against a 31% button open, but it's likely not that bad a play.
I think I would prefer a smaller bet on the flop or a check/call. This board is a tough one for you to play on turns after c-betting and getting called. Lots of cards make it very difficult for you with your range.
I think that betting around $4 will let him float wide and then bluff when you hit your straight (believing it to be a scary board for your range), and it gives you some more flexibility for barreling turns without going all-in (effectively).
Pre is a bit too loose of a 3bet, I'd prefer QJ97ds but I don't think it's a huge mistake.
On flop, this is a hand I usually put in my x/c range. It plays better in a smaller pot than in a larger one, and we have some deceptions as well on some turn cards. Also, getting jammed on here is kind of a disaster actually, because his gii range should be decently ahead of your hand and sometimes dominating it too. If you are gonna bet I prefer a smaller size like Phil said.
As played, I would barrel the turn. This is a good barrel card for your range (besides K/8 that gives you the nuts). It kinda sucks that we don't block any A with our specific hand so he can easily have 2p on this board which he might not fold yet, but in overall I think you should have enough FE to barrel there.
lets make it clear - main reasoning for betting smaller on the flop is to have a room for second barrel, right?
'cause I definitely see reverse side of it, like Vill could see it as weakness (or for w\e reason) raise wider (like Ten\Nine+gutter, that he is more likely to call vs 'standard' 2\3 of a pot bet)
Does 3 betting out of position in PLO achieve much more than building a pot? Is there merit to only 3 betting strong nut drawy hands like 89TJ etc that you want to play big pots with and flatting everything else you want to play (including AA combos?)
I mean for general say 6-max 100bb plus play
As for what it achieves, it reduces the SPR, thus reducing the value of our positional disadvantage (although not so much that we no longer suffer from a substantial one), enables us to build a pot which, if we have an equity edge is great, and takes the initiative (although the value of this is something I'm unsure of given I can always take the initiative on the flop with a donk if I wish).
No one is getting on your case hard enough about this so I will. This 3 bet is massively -ev. not just "not that bad". My estimates have it losing around 10% of a BB, while flatting earns 50% of a bb. that's .6bb/1 equity differential that you're spewing.
Would you care to share your analysis/estimates with us? Calculating the EV of flatting and 3betting preflop is a complicated task, and I'd like to see what assumptions you have made, etc. when you are giving us a specific, quantitative result like .6bb/1 equity.
I'm not going to share my analysis on a public forum. However, my assumptions were,
Villain opens 30%, 4 bets aces and kkds, folds to 3bet 21%, both 3 betting and flatting shared equiivalent R values and those R values were 90%.
Given these assumptions, 3 betting carries an ev of -.1/1, while flatting carries an ev of .5/1 as compared to folding.
Perhaps a case could be made for 3 betting having a higher R value than flatting, but I don't think the case is very strong considering how top heavy this hand is, and it's single suited and disconnected. Even if that is the case, flatting has a higher ev than 3 betting until the point that 3 betting carries a 15% higher R than flatting does. this is possible, but my intuition tells me it's unlikely, and given that everyone else also seems to think it's a bad 3 bet I will stick with my gut here.
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