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3/6 deep, call a 300bb shove with 2p when only 30bb invested?

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3/6 deep, call a 300bb shove with 2p when only 30bb invested?

BB: msroj: $2488.85
HJ: Luigi da BP: $2079.97
CO: ISILDRooN: $3328.81
BN: needdollarz: $600
SB: JNandez87: $1920.85
Preflop ($9.00) (5 Players)
ISILDRooN was dealt 9 T 3 Q
Luigi da BP folds, ISILDRooN raises to $18, needdollarz raises to $69, JNandez87 calls $66, msroj folds, ISILDRooN calls $51
Flop ($213.00) 2 3 9 (3 Players)
JNandez87 bets $142.69, ISILDRooN calls $142.69, needdollarz raises to $529.80, JNandez87 raises to $1707.96
needdollarz is semitilted, def forcing a bit and stuck a ton. Jnadez is a seminit, seen him lead like this after flatting oop on 954 with JJ55ds but think he understands that he wont show a profit flatting thoose types of hands when 3better is a 100bb stack.

Think dollarz may shove any like pair + gutter ~467x, or just a 9xxx KKxx AAxx, and nandez is either holding like 3456ds/4567ds some sort of AA45/5x/4x. Worst case scenario he holds some sort of KK99/33/22 and we call of 300bb drawing dead.

Haha im a bit tierd atm, but rly felt that i dident know what to do here and would like to know what u guys think


l8trssssss

3 Comments

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oboltys88 12 years, 1 month ago
really looks like SB is making sort of an isolation play with AA he didnt want to 4bet or maybe 9TJQ with backdoor fds because your range is very wide here when just calling his lead this deep. and if he's a nit are you really afraid of him having a set? he has very few strong hands on that board and even those he has he doesn't probably lead them since btn is likely to cbet then he can call slowplay his 99TTds giving you a chance to make a play. i think we have to call now given there will be a side pot where we are likely to be a favorite.
Maikel1983 12 years, 1 month ago
I am not really used to play this deep. But i will give it a try :). I really like JNandez87 lead, because probably JNandez realizes that needdollarz is on semitilt and will put in his money really light. And this scenario happens where HERO has to choose to play for his 300bb stack. If JNandez is really nit and only leading sets in this spot than HERO is screwed with roughly 20% equity.

I plugged in the ranges in PPT as you described.

3-way including worst-case scenario

board: 9s3c2h

QdTd9h3h - 44.51%
AA,KK,654*,A654 - 20.43%
6543,7654,AA54,AA4*,AA5*,KK33,KK99,KK22 - 35.06%

without worst-case scenario
QdTd9h3h - 45.03%
AA,KK,654*,A654 - 20.34%
6543,7654,AA54,AA4*,AA5* - 34.62%

Heads-up equity big-side pot

QdTd9h3h - 56.57%
6543,7654,AA54,AA4*,AA5* - 43.43%


QdTd9h3h - 56.07%
6543,7654,AA54,AA4*,AA5*,KK33,KK99,KK22 - 43.93%

QdTd9h3h - 55.42%
6543,7654,AA54,AA4*,AA5*,KK33,KK99,KK22, - 44.58%
AA33,AA22,AA99,TT99,JJ99

I am surprised the amount of equity even in the worst-case scenario, obviously more combo's for WR/draws than sets.
Brian Hamilton 12 years, 1 month ago
I agree with Leo about likely hands from villain. I would guess his range is strongly weighted toward big draws. Those hands just seem so much more likely to lead/want to get it in on the flop. Yeah he led with a set earlier on 945, but was it 3 handed with similar stack sizes? Also 932r is bit more dry. It just seems like a big mistake in his shoes to lead his flopped sets because he won't get as much action and it would weaken his checking range tremendously.

It really stinks to have to put in so much when you're never dominating, but I can't see myself folding this.

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