300/600 HU PLO. NFD+Gutter Facing Turn Raise OOP
Posted by Phil Galfond
Posted by
Phil Galfond
posted in
High Stakes
300/600 HU PLO. NFD+Gutter Facing Turn Raise OOP
BB: OMGClayAiken: $60000
SB: Isildur1: $62999.50
SB: Isildur1: $62999.50
Preflop
($900.00)
(2 Players)
OMGClayAiken was dealt
7
A
6
8
Isildur1 raises to $1800, OMGClayAiken calls $1200
Isildur1 raises to $1800, OMGClayAiken calls $1200
Flop
($3900.00)
J
5
Q
(2 Players)
OMGClayAiken checks,
Isildur1 checks
Turn
($3900.00)
J
5
Q
3
(2 Players)
OMGClayAiken bets $2700,
Isildur1 raises to $11700
I don't think Viktor has as many flop slowplays as I would (though he can have some) & he definitely can have thin value, as well as strong/weak draws. He is less afraid to face a 3bet than most, meaning he'll raise thinner, and perhaps call/shove lighter than I would, but certainly won't do anything stupid.
Need a plan. Call or raise now? If you call, how do you play A, K, T rivers, each when offsuit, club, or heart?
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Looking at the hand, with 100bb stack sizes against a player as strong as Viktor (who will most definately get it in with all combo draws and strong 2 pair although it really doesnt look like he checked QJxx in position - I would most likely give him a set of 3s or pair + combo draw - unlikely he has hearts though).
A player like Viktor usually likes to make the pots very big so I would again be less inclined to give him a flopped wrap. Therefore my play here would be to lead out strong (possibly pot bet) on any offsuit 8,9,10,K + all non-paired hearts as we could represent a strong flopped draw and it looks unlikely that Viktor checked back hearts/broadway wrap in position. I think Viktor would lead out if a non paired club or offsuit 4 hits the river - as it looks pretty likely that he has clubs and/or lower wrap. Therefore if we make the nuts there's a decent chance we can c/r and get our stack in. I would c/f all remaining rivers.
Does it make sense?
For a self proclaimed "recreational poker player," your thinking is excellent!
I agree that Viktor likes to build pots, so I also would not put him on a flopped wrap (besides the occasional T98, but even that is somewhat rare)
In seriousness, based on your reads of him raising merged and not often folding to 3bets, I'd call and bluff every straight completing heart except a 4h. I'd lead the 4 and clubs. That should be an approximately good ratio of value and bluffs. I'd consider a c/c on an off suit A given I don't expect hands like Q3 or J3 to bet and he would be more polarized to 33 given he doesn't slowplay flop much.
Isildur's flop range probably consists of strong hands with no nut outs (such as J5xx, Q5xx, AJLL, JLLL, some QLLL, and occasional AAxx, KKxx) and some very weak FD's and SD's and air. I would never expect him to have a NFD, set, and very rarely QJxx+. Considering Isildur's aggressive reputation, this is may even be giving Isildur too much credit for strong hands.
His turn raise range is probably many of these strong hands that are 'protection-raising' and also many weak-er draws such as 24xxcc, 46xxcc, 67xxhh that will want to pick up rivers, as the board changes often. This will allow him to dominate your calling range and force you into a guessing game on rivers (they certainly do change a lot, and he plays perfectly here).
On the turn you put 5bb into a 6bb pot. Isildur makes it 20bb and its 15bb to call into a 31bb pot. There aren't any other options besides (1) potting it here or (2) calling. These present four separate scenarios:
a) If we (1) and Isildur calls, we will have about 1/3PSB on the river and we get last bet. If Isildur calls our raise and folds here around 20% (25%?) of the time it is definitely +ev. I would think most of his range here misses around 60%+. This is super +ev. We should be balancing our "nuts" with our weakest hands. A678cc is certainly one of these.
b) If we (1) and Isildur shoves, we are going to have to call. However, as our range is much stronger, this probably happens less often than a).
c) If we (1) and Isildur folds, we pick up the 31bb pot.
d) If we (2) the pot on the river will be 46bb and we will each have about 77bb behind. If we bluff lead here on A,K,T offsuit rivers we can certainly be bluff-raised by Isildur. Also, many bluff and non-bluff paired rivers which also complete a flush will be very difficult to play and we can be bluffed. I also don't think x/r bluffing many rivers is a viable defense. It seems we play horrible in this spot and it seems pretty -ev.
I think we need to shove here because a) is extremely good and happens very often and c) is very good for us. This is also a perfect hand to balance our "nuts" with. b) isn't the end of the world and doesn't happen too often. It is too difficult to play most rivers when we call turn and face Isildur OOP in a guessing game.
Your blockers do a lot of different things here, but I think on balance I like a call and a lot of river leads- specifically I'm leading Ah/Kh/Jh/Th, leading at least Kc/Tc/9c, x/raising other non pairing clubs, leading sixes and twos (for pot).
Do you prefer leading A, K, T of hearts over A, K, T off because we have much less air in our range on those cards, and because you expect more hero calls when two flushes miss?
I'd obviously agree with that, but I also worry there are more hands in his range that will auto-call us on hearts (flushes).
I've got a lot of assumptions smuggled into that last post of mine. I'm probably giving away too much, but imo, theoretically, a) IP shouldn't be raising frequently here, b) IP's raising range should be almost all med-strong hands which are too good to just call the turn bet with, as well as a very small bluffing range, so c) given the flop action, and our 7h to block turned wrappy FD things, we can expect the large majority of IP's heart combos to include big hearts, and d) we can expect (comparatively many) of our own bet/call combos to include high, medium, and low hearts. I take as a given, e) if any player strays from assumptions a-d I'll just win enough from dominating their strategy that I don't care when I overbluff big heart rivers as compared to their suboptimal turn range.
The general model outlined above is almost certainly wrong in some of its details and very possibly seriously wrong somewhere fundamental, but it's my model and I'm stickin' to it.
The upshot of that model is I get to make some strong assumptions about IP's range and act on them on the river. Specifically the Kh/Jh/Th rate to block a lot of IP's flush combos, and our hand will have negligible showdown value on those cards. Ko/To I think at least a mixed strategy is desirable since I take it as a given IP must raise turn with enough made hands to make me 3betting hands like Qx or KK substantially -EV (at least as "value"), which is an oblique way of saying his range has a lot of 2PR+ in it. Ao we just win the pot too much to bluff.
@kenrutl. I think your analysis is very much on the right track, and I hope this post clarified some of your questions. One thing I think you forgot to mention is that Viktor may rarely check back big hearts, know that, and realize he'll need to fold a lot of his range on heart rivers, but still think raising turn with a non-hearty range is better than calling. In fact, I think that's exactly what he thinks, with the caveat that against a bluffing station like me he'll bluffcatch a fair bit of his TP> + big heart combos. That doesn't bother me too much though since he'll still hold enough clubs and other junk to make my bluff +EV, especially considering I can't fail to show up at the river without a lot of heart combos.
I may be wrong, but i don't think he has to wide raise-folding range on doubleFD turn when he raises a relative blank.
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