2pair+gutter vs raise OTF

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2pair+gutter vs raise OTF

SB: $25.14
BB: $21.79
HJ: $28.41
CO: $26.45 (Hero)
BN: $11.31
Preflop ($0.35) (5 Players)
Hero was dealt 5 3 7 8
HJ folds, Hero raises to $0.85, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $0.60
Flop ($1.80) 3 8 4 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.50, BB raises to $6.22
what you think about pre open? blinds are loose, BTN unknown

bb 39\19 over 300hands wtsd 27%
raise vs cb 8%, flop aggr 23%

at the first sight folding kind of nitty, but
my guess is worth that he's raising here is some overpair+NFD, like JJAss. we're a;most 49%

any thoughts?

6 Comments

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nurmix 11 years, 10 months ago
He's hardly ahead, but i don't think he's huge underdog too often.
You both roll at around 50:50 here, but sometimes he'd have a set making you close to dead with bare gs. With dead money and rake included it's gonna be even... probably fold.
Tom Coldwell 11 years, 10 months ago
I don't think villain has enough sets to make this a fold. I would either shove now or call to stack off everything that isn't a spade. I think I slightly lean towards the call to stack off line because we don't risk losing value against worse made hands (unlike those times people consider calling here w/ top set which I think is completely horrible).
Nom de Guerre 11 years, 10 months ago
this is a tricky spot. i am not sure i would love a shove here.

your hand isn't that strong, and i can think of a few hands villain might have that leaves you in bad shape, e.g. 88xx, 44xx, 33xx, 84xx with two spades, even A8 (AT98, A987, AT87, etc) with two spades makes your hand marginal. yes 44 and 33 are unlikely but you can never discount them completely when the villain is eager to start shoving chips to the middle.

i would call flop and reevaluate on the turn.
JimmyGlass 11 years, 10 months ago
but we dont need him to show a set to feel bad about the spot. tons of overpairs +FD, 56\67+FD, any pair +overcards+FD.
i mean he's just raising too tight and vs this range i use to see either combodraw or set

my opinion is exact as nurmix's here
CosmicTeapot 11 years, 10 months ago
I would guess that shoving and folding are really close. I doubt shoving is + EV against someone who seems pretty passive on the flop, but it's not awful by any means. I agree with the above suggestions of calling and then folding all spade turns, as well as any 4.

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