2nd Set of NUTS drawy board

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2nd Set of NUTS drawy board

BN: $67.88
SB: $63.54
BB: $91.62
UTG: $66.86
HJ: $81.52
CO: $115.40 (Hero)
Preflop ($0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt J A K K
UTG calls $0.50, HJ raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, BN folds, SB calls $1.25, BB calls $1, UTG calls $1
Flop ($7.50) A 4 K (5 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, HJ checks, Hero bets $4.55, SB raises to $16, BB folds, UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero calls $11.45
Turn ($39.50) A 4 K 3 (2 Players)
SB bets $25
I think it's a mistake not to 3bet this PF. I flat the 3bet flop to jam any heart turn and probably pair.
I don't think he got a 2356hhcc type of hand, it's either AA or AK with some heart/clubs.
Is it okay to shove this turn? or would you prefer to GII OTF?

4 Comments

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lofigr 11 years, 1 month ago

If we were not favourite OTF (and we can presume we are favourite), it would be interesting to see when our reraise becomes profitable comparing it to case when we just call.

Then, we would need to find what's the % when our opponent folds ( he needs to fold more than Y% of time) to make our raising profitable and adjust it to situation we are dealing with (opponent, FE & range judgement).

I think we play here vs (QJT,532):hh:cc => we are 53-55% favourites at worst case and we need ~43,7% to stack off OTF in this spot - which we do have.

I would GII OTF.




Fyrsten 11 years, 1 month ago

But yet I don't think he raises flop with 235hh/cc that often. He gotta know I have something since I bet 70%+ in a 5way pot.. Anyway most people would pot this turn for the FE and it's a scary board for AA with no FD. I'm starting to think I should've jammed aswell.

PLO73 11 years, 1 month ago

Just ship flop? Any heart kills out action and also our hand becomes a bluff catcher. Any TQorJ also does the same. Same way the 3 does really. IMO just get it in on the flop as he seems to want to after check raising into 3 players unlikely he had AA as we have a blocker

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