2nd Nuts IP River Spot (300bb deep)

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2nd Nuts IP River Spot (300bb deep)

Hi everyone, first post on RIO. I've been going through the Ground Up PLO course (loving it) and playing and ran into this spot. For some reason, I can't get past my impasse.

I've played a thousand+ hands against Villain, but I don't trust my HUD against him anymore, he's shown vast improvement over the past couple months. He used to be a whale, and now I think he's capable of CRAI this river. He's also capable of folding rivers to 3-barrels from a strong range (which happened earlier in the session).

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/69nGbwU

I realize I'm blocking QJTX wraps on the turn, but what calls a pot sized raise on the turn and a river bet on that rundown (QJTX hits)?
Am I bet calling? Bet folding? If so, sizing considerations?

My in game thought was between 1/3, 1/2, and check. I obviously settled on check, which seems criminal, but I can't put him on a calling hand with QJTX hitting. If he's still got on aggro-whale in him, do we go with 1/3 with the intention of calling?

I'd love to hear some thoughts.

Thanks

2 Comments

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Paul Toda 3 years, 1 month ago

Hey, after I raised Pot on the turn, the only sizing I would use on the River is Pot.
The benefit of potting the river will also be that you don't have to worry too much about being raised on the river as a bluff.
Of course, he can still have JT on this river, but you don't block any pairs on the turn, so he can still have sets and 2 pairs +backup (flush draw, gutshot), and he can still have T7 with no backup, a hand that won't get the money in on the turn, because it will get freerolled often, but will have a hard time on the river vs a pot-sized bet.

RatStyleGaming 3 years, 1 month ago

Very interesting.
I think checking is fine, because he bet pot on turn and call big raise, usually peoples doesnt do that with set or 2p+draw very often, usually it is straight or draw, so it is hard to imagine what hand he will call on the river and I dont think that people overcalling here too frequently vs large sizing. Blocking Q is not terrible, butttt im not sure. Probably the worst hand I would bet here will be TT7X
Vs some passive guys I feels like it is ok to bet just 30-50% ( it is some sort of exploit vs really weak players) , and do same with some JT with 1 or 2 pairs or set.
I dont think that you should have here only potsize sizing, because a lot of your JT will block part of his calling range, also here not a lot of 2nd -4th nuts that your 1st nut can dominate and your bluffs here is not only hands with a lot of blockers like TT9.

But also I think a lot of players would like to donk their 1st nuts on the river.

So if in moment I'm not sure, I would like to just check

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