2nd nut flush fold on the river
Posted by Ephedrine10
Posted by Ephedrine10 posted in Low Stakes
2nd nut flush fold on the river
Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools by CardRunners - Hand Details
BB: $22.07 (88.3 bb)
MP: $30.33 (121.3 bb)
CO: $21.76 (87 bb)
Hero (BTN): $84.19 (336.8 bb)
SB: $28.65 (114.6 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with K 4 J K
MP raises to $0.50, CO calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, SB folds, BB calls $0.25
Flop: ($2.10) 6 5 2 (4 players)
BB checks, MP bets $1.50, CO calls $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, BB folds
Turn: ($6.60) 9 (3 players)
MP bets $4, CO folds, Hero calls $4
River: ($14.60) 5 (2 players)
MP bets $10.50, Hero folds
Hey! Any opinion on my tought process ! :)
Now, he is opening 25% from MP. Cbets this flop 4 way : i gave him this cbetting range (65+,qhh+,47+:hh) can be tighter though, like not cbets naked Qhi fd. but his cbet stat is 73%. On the turn he barrels the flush against 2 players. IMO this is very rarely done without a flush. On the river he bets and I fold coz although he will not have many boats-he'd not barrel with 55/66 (if deeper, we might consider shoving as a bluff) he will have the nut flush almost exlusively:
him having the nut blocker is only possible if he has like 65 or a set to go along with it (he wouldn't have cbet the flop with a naked nut blocker 4 way) so 0,94% of the time will he have it.
Its possible he has lower flush, but surely not bets them on the river.
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