Looks like a standard flat to me.

I don't think a 40/7 guy raises here with worse draws very often, and I agree that this is often times sets or maybe J6. Against sets you have 10 immediate outs (8 flush outs + 2 Aces, 4h fills him up so it's no good) on turn, and I would expect your implied odds are quite good because I just don't see him folding his sets at any point, even on heart or A turns. Also, he might sometimes slow down on 8/7/3/2 turn cards, and now you can check back to realise equity (a bit deeper, I would just pot there with my 55 blocker). If turn bricks and he pots again, oh well, nothing much we can do but folding. But there aren't too many "brick" turns, and even if it bricks, that is made up for by the times we hit and get paid off, imo.

Getting it in here doesn't look like a very attractive option, as we seem to have 0 FE and our equity against his range shouldn't be all that fantastic.

Yeah tbh having seen you write it down and gone back over the hand after the fact, flatting seems the totally standard/obvious line here. Even if he goes into c/c mode on a flush turn I don't think this player type can let his sets go after potting them on flop, and we can def get 2 big streets from him IP. I guess in the heat of the moment I gave him too much credit for being able to get away on scarecards when in reality that probably isn't the case. Thanks for the input. He had JJ fwiw and I felt pretty dumb when I rammed and he flipped em up after telling myself beforehand that it was probably top set! Live and learn eh.

vs the standard fish-xr-range (J6 w/something and 44+), getting it in is bad (we have about 38%) . i used to jam here 100bbs deep bc i also thought that our outs "arent hidden" but were just burning money that way. add the fact that we are deeper, gii becomes a bigger mistake. also, a lot of fish dont x-r bot set or top2 no draw deep so the range i mentioned first is probably somewhat accurate (adding bot set doesnt change it much).

if he x-r any top2+, its starting to look a little better with 46%. add all J6+,J4+fd,and both OE+fd and we are almost flipping so we need him to x-r a lot of fds or have a x-r fold range for this to be a shove. its not even an option vs a normal LPs x-r range.

this is a pretty big leak that i used to have, and ur winrate should improve drastically once u plug it.