25PLO: Okay Bluff X/R and Follow Through?
Posted by Lenny Seward
Posted by
Lenny Seward
posted in
Low Stakes
25PLO: Okay Bluff X/R and Follow Through?
HJ: $14.48
CO: $57.27
BN: $26.88
SB: $40.86 (Hero)
BB: $22.50
CO: $57.27
BN: $26.88
SB: $40.86 (Hero)
BB: $22.50
BTN is a reg-fish. Pretty loose and kind of passive. Plays with more aggression HU and IP.
BTN Stats: 8.6k hands, 48/27, RFI OTB 42%, AF 1.7, Fold to X/R 42%, CBet Flop IP 45%
Hero Stats: 127 hands, 33/22, AF 3.5, 3Bet vs. BTN Steal 9%, X/R Flop 17%
BTN Stats: 8.6k hands, 48/27, RFI OTB 42%, AF 1.7, Fold to X/R 42%, CBet Flop IP 45%
Hero Stats: 127 hands, 33/22, AF 3.5, 3Bet vs. BTN Steal 9%, X/R Flop 17%
Preflop
($0.35)
(5 Players)
Hero was dealt
6
T
7
7
HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.65, BB folds
HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.65, BB folds
He was opening 42% of BTN's and I didn't want to 3Bet, but this hand is good enough to see a flop with, with an ultra tight BB behind me.
Flop
($1.75)
2
5
8
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BN bets $1.50,
Hero raises to $4,
BN calls $2.50
He CBets and I go ahead with a X/R. He is going to be betting a ton on this dry of a flop. I have 77 which makes his wrap combos WAY less likely and he is going to 3Bet the flop with any of his premium value hands (any set or two pair). I also thought this gave me some deception. I have one of the only two flop draws and it's pretty obvious when I hit. When he calls I think he can have a pair+overs, 43, maybe a pair+BDFD. In general, a hand that is too good to fold, but not enough to 3Bet OTF.
Turn
($9.75)
Q
(2 Players)
Hero bets $9.75,
BN calls $9.75
Since I don't have a lot of SD value in reality, I go ahead and pot it looking to maximize my fold equity. I think it's very credible because the Qs brings in a ton of draws. IMO, he's also most likely to think I have a set by potting it here because that's what he would do. Against fish, I think acting in a similar manner to how they would act with certain hands in spots can really help us rep a specific hand category.
When he calls, I think he may have picked up a flush draw, but not two pair. I think he'd probably jam his Q8/Q5, but when he calls I still think he has some kind of draw, be it one of the flop straight draws or backdoor spades.
When he calls, I think he may have picked up a flush draw, but not two pair. I think he'd probably jam his Q8/Q5, but when he calls I still think he has some kind of draw, be it one of the flop straight draws or backdoor spades.
River
($29.25)
2
(2 Players)
When the board pairs it is a mandatory shove and seeing his actual hand I'm not totally surprised he called, but am a little. It tells me he either isn't reading hands, thinks my X/R's OTF are more with (semi) bluffs than for value, or he just can't lay down a "strong" hand like the nut flush when he should. Also, he must not have thought his AA were good OTT otherwise he would've shoved turn, so if he was reading my hand I guess he saw it as two pair.
Final Pot
Hero has
6
T
7
7
BN has
A
A
J
7
Hero
wins $13.98
,
BN
wins $52.01
Loading 3 Comments...
Lets start at the beginning with preflop: You called a raise w/ T677ss. From the SB. I cannot fathom an excuse for that because you are spotting your opponent position with a hand that flops crap. Whatever you were hoping to achieve here is beyond me, but this is a mandatory fold in my opinion. All your problems began here with playing an atrocious hand in an awful spot when you didn't have to.
The flop c/r is ok. I mean, you should get a load of folds because very little hits that, but you pretty much rep what you have (some sort of straight draw) - it's really hard to flop a strong hand on 852r with any reasonable SB calling range (although I guess given you called w/ 77xx maybe you specifically have more sets than most here). Once he calls it's kinda shitty 'cas he probably has something like KK or 678 which he may have a hard time folding (people don't like to call c/rs and fold later on in my experience). Note: Against a guy w/ a 45% c-bet stat, I might just lead here 'cas I'm not enthusiastic about building a big pot by c/ring or c/cing and don't really think we can c/f. I generally like to lead spots where all other options could lead to annoying turn spots.
On the turn I don't think potting is your best option. If he's planning to fold, he'll do it for 2/3 pot, and if not, betting smaller leaves us a more dangerous river shove. Your sizing meant that any potential river bluff is gonna be so small relative to the pot that it'll get looked up somewhat lighter than you may wish.
Finally the river I guess is a jam 'cas w/e, he MIGHT fold, it doesn't have to happen often and I guess it's still consistent with what we would have done w/ a set. We're basically pushing him off like 678 here, but it seems ok. A shame we can't put a larger bet in, but our turn sizing dictated this already.
However, your criticism of villain for making a call when he 'should' fold frustrates me a lot. It's the kind of logic you often hear a player make to justify a poor play. The idea that your range contains enough full houses to make folding the nut flush correct is clearly ridiculous (just look at the crap you've shown up with!). You have to somehow have flopped a set or two pair on that board which is really rather difficult with anything approaching sensible starting hand selection and even then you'll have a ton of wraps etc. which are forced to jam (everything on the flop missed). Heck, you coulda turned clubs and jammed that for value. Villain's call has to be right like 1/4 of the time which it clearly will be (far more often imo). I think on the 2c calling w/ AAxx is a legitimate play, but on the 2s I guess you can have enough flushes that perhaps he'd have to fold a naked overpair. Basically, your perception of your range as being super strong here is complete BS and proceeding under this assumption will lead you to make plays which end up being massively spewy.
All that said, I still hate the preflop call most of all. I cannot emphasize enough how much you should not be playing this hand OOP.
This hand was played ~3 months ago, so I don't know any game dynamics or memorable history. I think what I was thinking pre-flop was that I had some connected cards, but I didn't want to 3Bet with a pair in my hand. I was also trying to loosen up a bit OOP, but obviously this is not a hand to defend with. Sometimes I loosen up too much when I think I can outplay them post-flop and maybe fight for some pots too much. I'll say I am normally very tight OOP, especially in SB, so it's not like I am playing this type of hand OOP normally. I also greatly overestimated the strength of this hand.
Do you think his turn call is good? I mean, I figured he would fold AAs:ss there. He obviously doesn't think his AA is good OTT, so he's basically calling a PSB with a naked nut flush/set draw. Plus, if he misses, is he going to call a river shove? If the answer is yes, then he should just shove turn.
I wasn't criticizing him, I was just saying that some opponents can't lay down "strong" hands like flushes/straights when the board pairs OTT or OTR. I'm also not saying he shouldn't call there. If he's drawing to the NF OTT then he HAS to call when he hits, even if the board pairs.
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