25PLO: Flop Decision ~220bb Deep
Posted by Lenny Seward
Posted by
Lenny Seward
posted in
Low Stakes
25PLO: Flop Decision ~220bb Deep
BB: $27.96
UTG: $71.11
HJ: $23.50
CO: $55.71 (Hero)
BN: $15.60
SB: $30.43
UTG: $71.11
HJ: $23.50
CO: $55.71 (Hero)
BN: $15.60
SB: $30.43
UTG: Straightforward TAG; 2.5k hands, 19/18 UTG, X/R 6%
SB: No reads; 323 hands, 35/16, Cold Call 3Bet 33% 3/9, X/R 9%
Hero: Table captain, UTG might see me as spewy as I 3/4Bet a lot and barrel frequently; 34/28, AF 13.0, CBet in 3BP 100% 2/2
SB: No reads; 323 hands, 35/16, Cold Call 3Bet 33% 3/9, X/R 9%
Hero: Table captain, UTG might see me as spewy as I 3/4Bet a lot and barrel frequently; 34/28, AF 13.0, CBet in 3BP 100% 2/2
Preflop
($0.35)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
3
4
K
A
UTG raises to $0.85, HJ folds, Hero raises to $2.90, BN folds, SB calls $2.80, BB folds, UTG calls $2.05
UTG raises to $0.85, HJ folds, Hero raises to $2.90, BN folds, SB calls $2.80, BB folds, UTG calls $2.05
3Bet against someone who I can play against well IP and won't make tricky plays.
Flop
($8.95)
5
Q
6
(3 Players)
SB checks,
UTG checks,
Hero bets $7.50,
Hero folds
It should say Hero bets $7.50, SB raises AI, UTG raises AI, Hero folds.
I was torn here. I am doing okay against two sets, but I was worried that UTG or SB would have NFD and that kills me. What do you guys think? Too nitty, or did I make a good fold vs. their ranges? I figured one of them would have the NFD very often.
I was torn here. I am doing okay against two sets, but I was worried that UTG or SB would have NFD and that kills me. What do you guys think? Too nitty, or did I make a good fold vs. their ranges? I figured one of them would have the NFD very often.
Turn
($16.45)
T
(2 Players)
River
($16.45)
2
(2 Players)
Final Pot
UTG has
Q
Q
T
K
SB has
9
7
7
8
UTG
wins $40.68
,
UTG
wins $68.51
Loading 7 Comments...
i was thinking and thinking about exact same spot~ and i came to that conclusion~ im not sure tho is it a correct one
In this specific hand, folding was an error (rough EV of calling off another $45 is $52), but you were about as good as you could ever hope to be here. Take another couple of examples like this: UTG has what he has and SB has A888 w/ diamonds (a meaningless nfd). Your EV on that call: just over $38. Now that doesn't look too bad, and about as close to even as the spot you folded so perhaps overall calling is close? No. Because what if SB has the set and BB has draw. This time, as he's over-shoving, we'll give him AdJdQT (so you have top pair outs in the side pot). Your EV now: $32. That's pretty awful.
It's tempting to see a hand like this and think, "damn, if only I'd have called I'd have been in a great spot to win a load of money." However, the other 6 times you fold this and had less than 20% equity in the main pot because it's not the best conceivable situation for you, you don't post the hand and never think further about it. Don't make poor adjustments because of the one hand you would have won, avoid them because of the majority where you'd have gotten it in awful.
On the flop it is not exactly 3way, because you are also heads up with UTG for a 200 bb sidepot, and your equity against his range ((QQ,Ad*d)!AA) just sucks, so it's a trivial tough fold :)
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