25PLO: Flop Decision ~220bb Deep

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25PLO: Flop Decision ~220bb Deep

BB: $27.96
UTG: $71.11
HJ: $23.50
CO: $55.71 (Hero)
BN: $15.60
SB: $30.43
UTG: Straightforward TAG; 2.5k hands, 19/18 UTG, X/R 6%

SB: No reads; 323 hands, 35/16, Cold Call 3Bet 33% 3/9, X/R 9%

Hero: Table captain, UTG might see me as spewy as I 3/4Bet a lot and barrel frequently; 34/28, AF 13.0, CBet in 3BP 100% 2/2
Preflop ($0.35) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 3 4 K A
UTG raises to $0.85, HJ folds, Hero raises to $2.90, BN folds, SB calls $2.80, BB folds, UTG calls $2.05
3Bet against someone who I can play against well IP and won't make tricky plays.
Flop ($8.95) 5 Q 6 (3 Players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $7.50, Hero folds
It should say Hero bets $7.50, SB raises AI, UTG raises AI, Hero folds.

I was torn here. I am doing okay against two sets, but I was worried that UTG or SB would have NFD and that kills me. What do you guys think? Too nitty, or did I make a good fold vs. their ranges? I figured one of them would have the NFD very often.
Turn ($16.45) T (2 Players)
River ($16.45) 2 (2 Players)
Final Pot
UTG has Q Q T K SB has 9 7 7 8 UTG wins $40.68 , UTG wins $68.51

7 Comments

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Aleksandra ZenFish 12 years, 2 months ago
hmmm...if you have 3 way allin in front of you, i think its correct to call~ flush outing is 33 percent so you will be good in it 1 in 3 times, and folding there u repeatedly lose :S
i was thinking and thinking about exact same spot~ and i came to that conclusion~ im not sure tho is it a correct one
Aleksandra ZenFish 12 years, 2 months ago
i cant calculate tho exact ev for that spot cause sets will out 30 percent of the time in the fullhouse as well..so calling 3 way allin with flush draw .....agh ....im not sure i got correct maths in that spot
Adjacentbag 12 years, 2 months ago
A lot of this decision would be based on odds and I cant tell how much youd have to call. I think your original reasoning is fine though.You should be against the nfd in this spot a lot which basically kills your hand.
Tom Coldwell 12 years, 2 months ago
This is a fold. A lot of the time you are DEAD, and the rest you are just about getting the right price. If you put it in, even ignoring the main pot you'll be playing a $50 side pot with UTG who is tight and has you beat here always. Just top set (and he won't have a hand you do better against) is 60% against you and if he has like AQBB w/ nut diamonds it gets pretty bad.

In this specific hand, folding was an error (rough EV of calling off another $45 is $52), but you were about as good as you could ever hope to be here. Take another couple of examples like this: UTG has what he has and SB has A888 w/ diamonds (a meaningless nfd). Your EV on that call: just over $38. Now that doesn't look too bad, and about as close to even as the spot you folded so perhaps overall calling is close? No. Because what if SB has the set and BB has draw. This time, as he's over-shoving, we'll give him AdJdQT (so you have top pair outs in the side pot). Your EV now: $32. That's pretty awful.

It's tempting to see a hand like this and think, "damn, if only I'd have called I'd have been in a great spot to win a load of money." However, the other 6 times you fold this and had less than 20% equity in the main pot because it's not the best conceivable situation for you, you don't post the hand and never think further about it. Don't make poor adjustments because of the one hand you would have won, avoid them because of the majority where you'd have gotten it in awful.
Misha Savinov 12 years, 1 month ago
I'd hate this 3bet with effective stacks 120 bb and less, however, it seems more acceptable this deep, because we don't have to fold to a 4bet.

On the flop it is not exactly 3way, because you are also heads up with UTG for a 200 bb sidepot, and your equity against his range ((QQ,Ad*d)!AA) just sucks, so it's a trivial tough fold :)

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