25PLO: Facing River Check-raise with Top Set. Are We Calling or Shoving?
Posted by rongrang
Posted by
rongrang
posted in
Low Stakes
25PLO: Facing River Check-raise with Top Set. Are We Calling or Shoving?
Poker Stars $25.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players - View hand 2803687
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter
BB: $65.62
UTG: $66.18
MP: $10.99
CO: $21.15
Hero (BTN): $25.00
SB: $27.98
Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with A J
2
A
3 folds, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, BB calls $0.75
Flop: ($2.10) Q 3
7
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.00, BB calls $2
Turn: ($6.10) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
River: ($6.10) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.50, BB raises to $14.63, Hero ???
Villain is presumably a regular. No reads or history with him yet, but his stats are 39/26 with 1.9 aggression factor after 51 hands.
I feel like we should have bet on the turn but thought it would suck to get check-raised here, and if villain had a lower FD + a pair then letting him hit a diamond might be more profitable. So I decided to check behind.
River we hit top set. So we bet, he raised... Are we calling or shoving? Only hand that beat us is 56**.
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Would be really weird to play 65 like taht, but not impossible.. I just nit call.
Lets evaluate this further.
We have to look at hands villain is x/raising with AND calling a shove at a high frequency.
So villain has a random bluff like busted diamonds. Calling and raising is the same as he will always fold to a jam. 2 pair would be too loose to raise here. QQ/ 77 are possible, tough they might wanna lead flop or x/raise it some of the time while 65 always just calls.
QQ and 77 should be capable of x/r/fold as your river 3betting range should have them beat always but your calling range doesnt.
Now look at the scenarios.
Villain has 56, which he can have pretty much all isolated combos of, 56ss 87 or 87s 65off. Which is a total of 16 combos. If you jam he always calls and always wins so your loss equals the additainmol amoount. In this very case, it isnt that relevant as you dont shove for much more, but the consideration should be applied to possible deep stacks scenarios in which shoving would make a big difference.
Now villain has QQ or 77, which make 6 combos, some of which will have played the hand differently OTF. Even if he alwys calls with his enitre 6 combos here, compared to the 16 combos of 65, you lose by shoving.
Until ill be shown otherwise by the field im folding
At low stakes you can pretty much fold 100% of your non-nut hands to river check-raises. That's not to say that you never run into a bluff, it's just that essentially nobody will be overbluffing in that spot and you can just fold.
In this particular hand I can't even see how this is a particularly good bluff catcher, so it's an easy fold. (meaning you have no blockers that you want, but you have anti-blockers that you don't want)
Turn is most likely a bet btw.
If we bet the turn we are folding to a raise, right?
Yes. Which would suck. But the 4 isn't the most worrying straight completing card against most opponents, so I don't expect to get raised all that often.
" At low stakes you can pretty much fold 100% of your non-nut hands to river check-raises" Seen enough weird stuff to dissaprove this statement.
Which is why you're moving up so quickly from 10 to 2 plo?! Or was that a different Disharmonist? :D
Yesterday, I saw someone jamming the flopped nut straight on a flush turn with 0% EQ ofc.
Dont come alogn with explo folding when you have the 2nd nuts.
I would call as it would be really strange for him to have 56xx there, especially with that betsizing. At PLO10 some fancy regulars are making some strange bluffs, and here opponent knows that hero doesn't have 56xx EVER. With betting the river he knows he doesn't have that much of folding equity but with c-raise he can give a lot of pressure to hero.
Don't know about you people but im playing 456 the exact same way and im playing all combos of it from the bb vs btn. And i didn't come along with explo folding since from what i see jonna agrees with folding vs river c/r. Also the situation you gave example for has one more street left to play so probably fish is value shoving vs sets. However if you do want to call this you should find a better hand like AQ(5/6)+ I agree that the river sizing should be pot but villain doesn't necessary know that.
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