$25/$50/$100 Live Hand Tricky Flop Decision
Posted by David Nicholson
Posted by
David Nicholson
posted in
High Stakes
$25/$50/$100 Live Hand Tricky Flop Decision
Played this hand ~3/4weeks ago in the bellagio and I (had an instinct) but was unsure at the time, and this has kinda interestingly split opinion of everyone I've asked about it pretty evenly.
25/50/100 5handed
UTG (weakest player, but certainly not "bad") opens to $300 playing $8.5k
Btn folds
I raise to $1,200 in the SB with Ac Ah 6h 5c playing $17k
The middle blind (Prahlad Friedman) calls covering everyone
The Big blind (Brain Rast) calls playing ~$9k
UTG calls
Flop ($4,800) 2c 3c 3h
I lead $2,800, PF makes it $6k, Brian Rast ships in for what is iirc pretty much exactly $8k...
I have $13.4k behind and thee pot is ~$21.5k.
I've never played with PF before, but I'd shown him quite a lot of respect and my strategy whilst the game was 5 handed and I had a rough seat was to try and ISO the UTG player and freeze PF and BR out of pots, when I 3bet preflop here I dont think he'll assume i'm magnum+ but I have a really good hand always as v unlikely to be folding to an UTG 4bet and I hadn't been making a habbit of shoveling money in OOP without good hands so far. Will prolly just see me as "solid" up to this point.
So the questions that divided everyone i asked were,
1) How often PF is raise/folding
2) How often PF is raise/calling a hand worse than 3xxx
3) How often BR doesn't have 3xxx, and how that affects PF's range.
4) Which big pair combo's PF overcalls preflop and what he does with QQ**cc hands OTF
We need roughly 27% to get it in 3ways, I don't know how to work out how much equity PF's folds give us overall.
I thought about it quite a bit but won't post my opinions.
Thanks for reading!
Loading 7 Comments...
1) I don't think Prahlad is ever raise/folding to you. If UTG & me folded, and you jammed, the pot would have about 27k, and prahlad would have to call 10k more. Prahlad needs 27% to call vs that range. I think the bottom of his range is hands that he's raising with the plan to continue vs. you heads up, but will fold if me or UTG put our money in, and then you overjam for your stack. These hands would be hands like 456x, QQxx w/ clubs, KKxx w/ clubs, A45, 7745 ... these hands play well against your range (which almost never has 3s)... and it's a spot he might get you to fold hands that have good equity vs him (AAxx w/out clubs). These are hands that equity is very bad in a spot where he's up against (most likely) a 3 and Aces/Kings with clubs.
2) vs you, pretty close to 100% i think, in a spot where one of us (me or UTG) jams, and you rejam ... I think his range of overcalls will be essentially only 3s ... with you blocking the Ac & the 5c (so he can't have 45c) ... i can't think of many club-wrap hands he's going to raise, then call when action is 3 ways back to him.
3) I don't think I have to have a 3. If I had kings with clubs, 456x with at least 1 club or hearts, A245... i'm probably shipping all those hands, and maybe a few more I'm not thinking of atm. That's not many hands really (as many KK combos I'd shove pre), A245 very specific, etc... So I have a 3 a rather large portion of the time.
I personally think that with your hand given the action... I'd ship it, and it's not super close imo. You're actually 34.4% vs 3***, and the person who's a lot more likely to have a 3 is me. If you shove and prahlad folds, then you are putting in 5.2k to win 21.5k... which you have direct odds to do vs me unless I already have a boat (and you do as I've shown vs 3*** which includes that possibility already... your hand is actually 40% vs 3456 which blocks your straight!). And since I'm very likely to have a 3, prahlad isn't as likely to have a 3 (and more likely to have a hand he wants to iso against your range, or get you to fold, and 25.4% vs 3*** & 3*** anyways if we both happen to have a 3). So I think given how much is already in the pot, you need to be going with this hand.
Also from a theoretical perspective, this is going towards the top of your range (and basically the top of your range for non-3 hands, which is the vast majority of your range), and if prahlad and I are going to be balancing our ranges out by including (prahlad much more than me in this spot given stacks and situation) ... then theoretically it's good for you to be putting this in. i.e., I think prahlad will have a decent # of hands he folds after you reshove.... as listed above when i answer 1)
I would add that I think PF is raise folding more than you think, given if he had 3xxx+ he would consider flatting to keep utg op or you in. Plus as you mentioned we are blocking some key cards for his b/c semi bluff range.
In summary, I would've expected BR to have a tighter shoving range than he says he has, and I'd expect PF to have a wider range. With hindsight of learning of BR's range I agree with him and would jam. However beforehand I would b/f assessing Brian's range as tighter.
When Prahlad first raised I was 100% shipping (In the instance of him raising, me shipping him calling I think he'll just have a 3 a fair bit but w/e lol it's an easy play) when you went all in as well my gut instinct preferred it because now Prahlad has a 3 a lot less, then I thought for a bit (usually a bad idea), made some assumptions which were;
you have a 3 a very high % of the time
Prahlad isn't folding ever hardly (I think if I had an inkling he was going to fold, even some pretty small amount it becomes a must, must, must ship because that's obviously a lovely outcome for me :) )
Most of the hands I wanna see him show up with I don't think he'd overcall preflop, like I think he'd 4b the magnum QQ/KK hands and fold the really junky ones, I don't think I can see him overcalling AK45 unless it's specifically dbl suited to the A/K and the 456* run downs would have to either have a 3 with them (bad) or have clubs and I have the 5c (since reading your post I think the majority of this is incorrect, which is sigh cos this is the most important bit prolly!)
That Prahlad would just fold some OP combo's, and some naked club/wrap combos on the flop.
A lot of Prahlad's pf range that includes 3's also includes 4's and Aces, which are quite important cards for me (I think your PF range can have a much wider selection of 3's)
Whoever doesn't have a 3 will have some of my vital cards blocked almost certainly.
I completely agree this is pretty much the top of my range AK[Q-T]3ds, double paired hands with 22 in them and AA3*/KK3*ds and AQQ3ds are my only 3's given the PF action so if I was thinking theory it would be defo really bad to fold as I basically just give Prahlad money.
I did decide to go against my initial instinct (as you know) and fold, I have a strong feeling though with the benefit of a few weeks to think about it (and your post Brian) that I just made some bad conclusions about Prahlad's PF range and how he'd proceed with the weaker ("hit") hands in his range OTF.
Another kinda silly thing that played on my mind was just 10minutes before this hand my housemate who I know has played a fair bit with you 2 in Macau walked by and i casually asked "have you played with Prahlad much" and in describing his style he said to me "He always seems to show up with sick hands in spots you'd never think he could" lol
Thanks again for the reply.
I'd been forced by the nature of my seat to be pretty tight opening but defo had been 3betting the UTG player fairly often (although way preferable to do this from his BTN and my middle blind, and then I just have Prahlad to freeze out, this spot, when im in the SB was defo the spot I had to be strongest for obvious reasons) playing pots with the stack sizes we had with those two behind me most hands was obviously pretty annoying!
Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Equity Wins Ties
6% 56.83% 328,262 25,441
Kk:6% 43.17% 246,297 25,441
Omaha Hi Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Equity Wins Ties
15% 30.09% 173,054 15,006
6% 39.16% 224,082 21,775
Kk:6% 30.75% 176,571 15,916
And KK equity vs either or both of your get it in range will be even lower given utg will be folding parts of his range that don't fare well vs AA and KK.
But again, if you had assessed Brian's flop jam range to contain qqcc and kkcc I'd certainly ship given i think Prahlad is folding 3way fairly often, and/or calling off with dominated draw.
I think KK58with a suit would be a pretty easy ship, any AKK obv also fairly sure Brian would have shipped those PF as well which is why OTF I thought he had a 3 most of the time - I also thought (prolly wrongly) that Prahlad would ship/fold more KK and QQ combo's than he'd flat (see he I'd expect to fold mid and junky KK hands) so I thought he either has a wrap type hand (which could easily have a 3) or a 3, which would quite likely have an ACE or a 4 with it. I was prolly off with the assumptions I made in hand about his range pre-flop and how he proceeds with it post-flop, i heinsight.
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