$25/$50/$100 Live Hand Tricky Flop Decision
Posted by David Nicholson
Posted by
David Nicholson
posted in
High Stakes
$25/$50/$100 Live Hand Tricky Flop Decision
Played this hand ~3/4weeks ago in the bellagio and I (had an instinct) but was unsure at the time, and this has kinda interestingly split opinion of everyone I've asked about it pretty evenly.
25/50/100 5handed
UTG (weakest player, but certainly not "bad") opens to $300 playing $8.5k
Btn folds
I raise to $1,200 in the SB with Ac Ah 6h 5c playing $17k
The middle blind (Prahlad Friedman) calls covering everyone
The Big blind (Brain Rast) calls playing ~$9k
UTG calls
Flop ($4,800) 2c 3c 3h
I lead $2,800, PF makes it $6k, Brian Rast ships in for what is iirc pretty much exactly $8k...
I have $13.4k behind and thee pot is ~$21.5k.
I've never played with PF before, but I'd shown him quite a lot of respect and my strategy whilst the game was 5 handed and I had a rough seat was to try and ISO the UTG player and freeze PF and BR out of pots, when I 3bet preflop here I dont think he'll assume i'm magnum+ but I have a really good hand always as v unlikely to be folding to an UTG 4bet and I hadn't been making a habbit of shoveling money in OOP without good hands so far. Will prolly just see me as "solid" up to this point.
So the questions that divided everyone i asked were,
1) How often PF is raise/folding
2) How often PF is raise/calling a hand worse than 3xxx
3) How often BR doesn't have 3xxx, and how that affects PF's range.
4) Which big pair combo's PF overcalls preflop and what he does with QQ**cc hands OTF
We need roughly 27% to get it in 3ways, I don't know how to work out how much equity PF's folds give us overall.
I thought about it quite a bit but won't post my opinions.
Thanks for reading!
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