25/50 PLO hand at Bellagio - Trips on the turn, under trips on river

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25/50 PLO hand at Bellagio - Trips on the turn, under trips on river

Effective stacks with villian 12k

Fish limps in EP, another fish makes it 150 in CO, a third calls on the BTN, Andre (blond kid, young, pretty good, has played really high NLHE in the past), calls SB, I call K8c54 in the BB.

Flop Th 8s 2c, flop checks around.
Turn 8h Andre leads for 650, I call, everyone else folds.
River Ts
He checks.
I bet 1100.
He raises to 3700.
We?

My thoughts,
Preflop is a bit loose, but I really wanted to play pots with the bad players in the game, not really worried about this too much.

Is this river valuebet too thin? I think K8 is the worst hand I would bet here for value. I felt like a lot of his checking range was worse 8s and overpairs, and some bluffs he gives up on.
If he had a Ten he would probably be better of leading against my entire range. Most of my hand range has showdown value after I call the turn; either weak value like JJ9hh or 8xxx, or strong value like a Ten. I assume he thinks I will check back most of my weaker 8s, but those could pay off to a lead. This is all true of a full house as well, except he might be able to get a check/raise in, so its closer, but overall I would think he'd be best off leading that as well.

Andre is a pretty loose and aggressive player from the time I've played with him, that makes me lean towards a call. Otoh, he might view me as a bit of a hero, so that might make him bluff less

I called.
Thoughts on the hand?

13 Comments

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soggybottoms 12 years, 2 months ago
Your range shouldn't have many tens in it and on this river and vs him i'd expect you to get looked up fairly light a decent % of the time. I would bet. I think he should and almost always would bet the river if he has a 10. I guess he may check if he had 108 since your range would be weighted more towards bricked draws etc. two fairly elementary reasons why i'd call.
pacmang 12 years, 2 months ago
I think preflop is definitely a fold. I think this hand is really weak even against a soft line up.

I think I'd fold the river here. There aren't that many hands that he leads into 4 other players that would all of a sudden have to bluff on this river. From experience combined with the fact that he thinks you're a hero makes me really want to fold this hand here.

Given that you said this is the worst hand you'd bet for value here you'll have other hands that you will snap call his raise with (like Tx) and not be afraid that u got exploited.

I feel the river value bet is a bit too thin because I feel like he's never paying off an OP and not that many combos of worse 7's that he'd flat from the SB multiway pre.
Bullitos 12 years, 2 months ago
I can't really see him bluffraising a lot, that wouldn't make a lot of sense. Most hands that you're betting on river are bet/calling hands and very few light valuebets. You could bluff a couple missed combodraws, but he can make them fold by just leading river. So imo his line makes v little sense as a bluff.

It also doesn't make a whole lot of sense for value though (which is why it doesn't make sense as a bluff too :) ) cause you'll have a bluffcatcher most of the time and he should be betting all of his value combined with some bluffs to exploit it. I could see him going for a c/r with T8 or T2 (TT?), hoping you'd have a bare T or extracting an extra bet from a missed draw.

It's a really weird line though, but I'd fold, I simply think he's not bluffing enough.
Gregory Farrell 12 years, 2 months ago
I think you lose too much value from worse 8's by checking back here, as played I think villain shows up with 10c10d a little too much given his line. Bet-folding seems to be the best play
Bryce Yockey 12 years, 2 months ago
I was thinking that he might choose to turn like KKhh or JJ9hh into a bluff on the river given that he knows most of my range is like 8xxx on the turn and the T improves me very little. He also knows i dont have a boat often, and by raising he's repping a boat and maybe AT (seems unlikely).

It's kinda a weird spot because my betting range is so narrow after calling the turn. I can't just snap fold K8 just because its the bottom of my range, because my range includes so few hands in the first place. Like I rarely have a full house (slow played T8 is about it, maybe T2 very infrequently), so once I bet I have like A8, K8, Txxxhh, probably with some straight potential, which there aren't a ton of combos of that either.

It doesnt really make sense for him to have TT cause it reduces my valuebetting range even further, and reduces the number of hands I can bet/call with. If he has quads, he's just gonna bet. He's much more likely to show up with T8, 82, or T2 than TT imo. Obviously those hands are somewhat unlikely given that i have an 8, and he shouldnt have many 82 or T2 combos in the first place.



Gregory Farrell 12 years, 2 months ago
Good points.. I don't have history on the player but i'm not sure how many T2 or 82 combos he calls out of the SB with. 108 is also very likely I say 1010 because you also have a ton of draws in your range as well you'll be forced to bet when checked to on the river, I agree him having 10's reduces your value betting range but I think a c/r with 1010 to induce bluffs is a reasonable line
JohanB 12 years, 2 months ago
I think the right play here depends on your image. If he puts you on an 8 here on the turn, I think this is an easy call. It is just too likely a LAG will think after betting the turn light into a lot of people, hmmm i cant bluff the river i should check, then after you bet think hmmmm he probably raises T8 on turn so he will almost always have an 8 with some rare 22s and TTs in there as well. This makes the odds of you getting bluffed too likely added with how few combos beat you its a easy call.
joseph ressler 12 years, 2 months ago
I would not bet this river in relation to your opponents range I really don't see the value. Given the action you could easily show up with a number of monsters, so I think I would fold it is tough though. But don't bet.
Bryce Yockey 12 years, 2 months ago
I suppose if i pot he might not bluff raise, but maybe he will. My bet size is more based on the fact that I don't have many bluffs, so when your range is mostly value, you should bet smaller (according to game theory)

I could be convinced to not bet, but at the time I was sold on the fact he was gonna c/f worse 8x, so I thought I should bet. I think its pretty thin, but if we dont bet this, our valuebetting range is gonna be like KT+, its not like JT gets called by many worse hands that K8 does. The only difference is A8, and to be fair that could be a big enough difference, but at the time I thought his calling range was wide enough.
David Nicholson 12 years, 2 months ago
I'd check the river back here vs Andre, I played a fair bit against him and I realise checking back here gives you a pretty polarized river Vbetting range - IDK exactly what hand is the best hand id check here (would likely sway a bit in game) but I think i'd check back QT for sure, but I don't think this is a bad spot at all for your Vbets to be quite polarized as I think it's pretty easy to identify correct frequency with which you should be bluffing as you're whole range is mostly pretty weak anyways (but a lot will have some SD value)

I think that's just a really easy way to play your hand against a really good player.

As for the way the hands played I'd defo fold, it's very very easy for you to have a hand that can call his river raise it seems away better spot for a value c/r than a bluff with no meaningful history to consider

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