I think a small bet would be fine in this spot against most opponents, unless for some dumb reason you would never take the bet small line with your nutted hands.Since it's a multiway pot with a super low spr, you're still putting them to a decision for their stack regardless of whether you bet 20% pot or shove..I would therefore advocate b/fing $1390. I don't have reads on these opponents though and obv this one is gonna depend on how they view you and how they'llinterpret a bet.   those axxx hands you're hoping to fold out with a shove are probably still going to fold to a gay bet. This is a cool spot to me because really regardless of bet size you are still representing the same hand. 

Plan for turns obv depends on how flop action occurs but as a general plan I like jamming any diamond, 9,8,7, or 6, c/r on K's and c/f any other turns.

Tricky spot, I feel there are too many combos of 89Tx, 458x, 589x, 345x, A7xx, 77xx and 66xx etc are going to just go with it if you bet small. Perhaps better to c/f and if checked through jam turn on diamond, 8 or K and bet small on 6,7, A.

Few of the reasons I think that jamming is the most optimal play in this tricky spot are : 

- Kimokh would play very carefull in this spot after the big stack behind him and not calling us with Axxx hands I think.

- We should have tones of FE in this spot.

- If we get called from 6789 or 789T we are still fine. 

- I think most of the times their hands would be quite similar QTJ8 , AQJ5 , AJT9 , QQJJ , QJJT all ds.  

- Also I'm not sure about you but in this spot what would you do with AAxx , AA98 and AKJQ I think we would jam again all these hands with just a pot size bet dunno 

- I don't like betting small because both players can peel against us very profitable and we will have no clue what to do on almost any turn OOP , also I think they are very rarely rasing us on this flop only if they slowplayed AAxx somehow or have hands like A778 , A987 , AT98. 

It's my first post and I really would like to here some other opps on this spot esepcially from the RIO team. :))  

i did some rough calculations, and i think you have to jam here. even if you only get fold around 10-15% of the time, you lose less than you would folding. also, given that your range hits this board much harder, they will make some mistakes by folding hands with decent equity (7xxx type hands they somehow show up with, for example).

Hello ianks,

Can you show ur math please, i don't get ur numbers anyhow.

to compare ev of shove flop v ev of c/f

ev of c/f set as 0 EV

for shove

ev = P(1f2f)*($7545)+P(1c2f)*(his eq.)*(-$7218)+P(1c2f)*(our eq.)*($7218+$7545) + P(1f2c)*(his eq.)*(-$7218) + P(1f2c)*(our eq.)*($7218+$7545) + P(1c2c)*(their combined eq.)*(-$7218) + P(1c2c)*(our eq.)*(2*$7218+$7545)

i think its reasonable to set 1st guy calling range tighter than 2nd guy calling range when 1st player folds. Also when 1st player calls or jams 2nd player is gonna have much tighter range.

Let's give CO 12%-AA for preflop range and BTN 17%-AA

reasonable range for at least calling our jam for 1st player:

R1 = TP+GD>, WR, 2PR_13> 18.6% eq. 79

tight range:

R2 = TP+OE>, WR, 2PR_13>+GD> 5% eq. 76

for 2nd player when 1st folds:

TP+GD>, OE>, 2PR_13> 33% eq. 65

and continuing range when 1st calls:

A98, WR, T2P+GD>, SET 12%

so for a resonable continuing range for 1st player he still folds 81.4% of the time.

ev = 0.814*0.66*($7545) + 0.186*0.88*0.79*(-$7218) + 0.186*0.88*0.21*($14763) + 0.814*0.33*0.65*(-$7218) + 0.814*0.33*0.35*($14763) + 0.186*0.12*0.88*(-$7218) + 0.186*0.12*0.12*($21981)

ev = 4053 - 933 + 507 - 1260 + 1387 - 141 + 58 = 3671 = 73bb

Conclusion 1: Given a reasonable continuing range ev of shove is 73bb compared to c/f

Conclusion 2: Given that for a tight continuing range for 1st player his equity is actually lower against our actual hand and he folds more frequently our ev will increase.