2.5/5 zoom, middle set on straight board
Posted by jimmyhat1000
Posted by jimmyhat1000 posted in Mid Stakes
2.5/5 zoom, middle set on straight board
BN: $556.83 (Hero)
SB: $1540.83
BB: $267.10
UTG: $1371.48
HJ: $794.14
CO: $1621.32
SB: $1540.83
BB: $267.10
UTG: $1371.48
HJ: $794.14
CO: $1621.32
Preflop
($7.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
T
T
Q
9
UTG folds, HJ raises to $15, CO folds, Hero calls $15, SB folds, BB folds
UTG folds, HJ raises to $15, CO folds, Hero calls $15, SB folds, BB folds
Villian is 31/24/13, street by street AF is 4.75/2.6/5 over 510 hands. From what I can tell a good regular, but don't have any specific reads on him.
Flop
($37.50)
9
T
J
(2 Players)
HJ checks,
Hero bets $30,
HJ raises to $110,
Hero calls $80
I assume the flop is standard, can't see any reason to 3 bet in position. I suppose there is an argument for checking back but betting is obviously fine.
Turn
($257.50)
9
T
J
7
(2 Players)
HJ bets $185,
Hero folds
Turn is where I'm a little lost. We need 29.5% raw equity to call, against 20%:KQ we have 22.7% which means a turn call loses us $43 if we don't account for implied odds on the river and the fact he may be bluffing sometimes.
My question is does he have enough KKxx / QQxx bluffs & semi bluffs to continue? Also if we do continue do we jam so he either folds his semi bluff equity or gets the rest of his stack in with say AhKhK5 and 22% or do we call and see a river in position?
I don't think people take this line with JJ much at all hence not factoring it in. Also I don't think 78 / Q8 take this line and all of his T8, 98, J8 hands which are now the bottom straight don't CR the flop unless they are KKT8, KK98 etc so I think we can discount those somewhat as well.
My question is does he have enough KKxx / QQxx bluffs & semi bluffs to continue? Also if we do continue do we jam so he either folds his semi bluff equity or gets the rest of his stack in with say AhKhK5 and 22% or do we call and see a river in position?
I don't think people take this line with JJ much at all hence not factoring it in. Also I don't think 78 / Q8 take this line and all of his T8, 98, J8 hands which are now the bottom straight don't CR the flop unless they are KKT8, KK98 etc so I think we can discount those somewhat as well.
Final Pot
HJ
wins $254.70
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