2/5 zoom, missed wrap turned into bluff, think I butchered it.

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2/5 zoom, missed wrap turned into bluff, think I butchered it.

BN: $250.95
SB: $719.37
BB: $1602.80 (Hero)
UTG: $500
HJ: $735.98
CO: $1101.73
Preflop ($7.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt T K J Q
UTG folds, HJ raises to $15, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, Hero raises to $47.50, HJ calls $32.50
Villian is 35/24/11 over 75 hands. Street by street AF is 2/0.67/0 so he seems passive so far but could be a sample size problem.
Flop ($102.50) J 8 A (2 Players)
Hero bets $77.50, HJ calls $77.50
Turn ($257.50) J 8 A 7 (2 Players)
Hero checks, HJ bets $140, Hero calls $140
I'm not sure what to do on this turn. I don't really like any of my options that begin with betting, bet/call is gross because when he jams I am pretty dominated and bet/fold is pretty gross because I have a decent amount of equity. I opted to check / decide and when he bet that small I am getting a good enough price.

I would bet/call AA pretty often on this turn which is relevant for the river.
River ($537.50) J 8 A 7 8 (2 Players)
Hero bets $529.70
I don't know, lol. I can't really win by checking and it seemed like a decent card to bluff at first. Upon reflection however his turn sizing indicates a range skewed more toward 2pr, non AA sets than T9 which would make it a bad card to bluff, I don't think anyone ever folds a boat in his shoes. If I were him I may get suspicious and even call with AJ.

It seemed like a good card to bluff in the heat of the moment but after thinking about it more it seems kind of spewy. Even if I did get to the river with AA like this I don't know if I would always open shove.

Can anyone help with what to do here and on the turn?

3 Comments

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Janukowitsch 11 years ago

I aggree with your thoughts. C/decide is fine ott, especially versus a opponent with his tendicies. river I would simply c/fold, because of your reasoning.

VodkaHaze 11 years ago

Against a passive villain you can just make an exploitative turn b/f followed by tripling the deck assuming he nearly always jams the nuts over you OTT, and little amount of bluffs

Clownfish 11 years ago

The sample is really small so I am talking in a vacuum. Firstly in his UTG+1 range he has more broadway card combos (ABBx) than JTxx. Secondly you have a T in your hand which makes it a bit less likely for him to have JT. And a third and very important factor is his bet sizing. He bets only 54% of the pot against your vey set heavy range and a turn that brings a bdfd. I think it's obvious that villain has to bet more for value and protection if he is not a retard. For all these reasons I think x/shove is best for you because you have decent amount of fold equity combined with 28% against JT.

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