2.5 5 zoom plo. Best weak bluff catcher on the river?
Posted by banditz
Posted by
banditz
posted in
Mid Stakes
2.5 5 zoom plo. Best weak bluff catcher on the river?
BN: $1579.27 (Hero)
SB: $655.66
BB: $760.40
UTG: $1489.74
HJ: $232.50
CO: $820.23
SB: $655.66
BB: $760.40
UTG: $1489.74
HJ: $232.50
CO: $820.23
Preflop
($7.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
8
5
J
UTG folds, HJ raises to $15, CO folds, Hero calls $15, SB folds, BB folds
UTG folds, HJ raises to $15, CO folds, Hero calls $15, SB folds, BB folds
Hellow people, 3rd hand in a row from me :)
Villain is GodlikeRoy, who arguably isnt the worlds biggest bluffer.
He is quite tight in EP/MP (11%/13%), so i guess i am looking to find a preflop calling range as well. Against 13%6h i do have 43% equity, and i am very unlikely to get squeezed (because of his tight range, but maybe his stack size off sets this a bit?) I assumed that i get squeezed around 9% of the time here.
Villain is GodlikeRoy, who arguably isnt the worlds biggest bluffer.
He is quite tight in EP/MP (11%/13%), so i guess i am looking to find a preflop calling range as well. Against 13%6h i do have 43% equity, and i am very unlikely to get squeezed (because of his tight range, but maybe his stack size off sets this a bit?) I assumed that i get squeezed around 9% of the time here.
Flop
($37.50)
A
T
9
(2 Players)
HJ bets $25.21,
Hero calls $25.21
He bets quite aggressively in general, and i think he has a piece on this board with almost his entire range, and is well protected.
Turn
($87.92)
A
T
9
A
(2 Players)
HJ bets $58.05,
Hero calls $58.05
I assume that he follows through on the turn with any boat, and any AJ-AK with no heart draw, plus 9T and all the gutshots with 9 blocker or T blocker (this might be optimistic in terms of bluffing frequency?).
River
($204.02)
A
T
9
A
7
(2 Players)
HJ bets $134.24, and is all in
Against a polarized jamming range, i have around 26% equity on the river, assuming that he turns some Ax (narrowing down the range i gave him for betting the turn, this would be AJ-AK) into a bluff, and every 9T.
Are any of these assumptions wrong/too optimistic? Should i never bluff catch this river in your experience, or do it with a different hand?
Any thoughts much appreciated!
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