2.5-2.5 Live 9 handed 5678ds correct to ship pre?
Posted by erdian
Posted by erdian posted in Mid Stakes
2.5-2.5 Live 9 handed 5678ds correct to ship pre?
Hero 5678ds UTG (200 stack) Table covers hero
Hero and 2 more people limps 2.5
Maniac pots it to 17.5 on the BTN
sb+ hero calls
UTG+1 Maniac repots to 97.5, BTN calls 97,5 sb folds and hero jams for 200, UTG+1 MANIAC repots again BTN folds.
Okay I dont know whats the best line for me here. I could comfortably fold after investing 17.5 but I KNOW for a fact that UTG+1
has KKxx+ because he likes to raise and call but has never limp-raised before and every time he just raised once or called a raise he has shown garbage. The BTN maniac likes to autopot every chance he gets but when he does he usually shows upp with some kind off broadway cards in the mix JQKxs/AKxxs his call is more to that range then lower unconnected cards like 56JT.
Do you think my jam is better then fold here since it is over 50 bb's in dead money. Calling seems horrible as it draws everybody in and as you could see UTG+1 Maniac clearly wanted to repot if he got the chance.
I tried to make and EV calc on the situation and got the following; 80(my stack)+80(Maniacs stack)+39(Btn's raise)+9(Call+2 limpers)=208
208x0.44(My equity vs AA-KKxx)=91.52
91.52-73=18.52 total EV expect - rake
I am not sure about EXACT numbers but basicly every time I fold I lose 7 bbs and every time I play I should win somehwere between 12-18 bb's depending on what type off extra cards he has to his AA/KKxx.
Any flaws in my analysis or other stuff?
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