2.5-2.5-5 Live PLO 8 handed QQJ3 A bad bluff with blockers or just a ''range'' coole'?
Posted by erdian
Posted by
erdian
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Mid Stakes
2.5-2.5-5 Live PLO 8 handed QQJ3 A bad bluff with blockers or just a ''range'' coole'?
Hero QQJ3s BTN(400 Stack) Table covers hero, my image is VERY TIGHT
Midpos Raises to 20
Hero Calls
Sb(loose station) calls
Straddle Calls LAGGY who likes to bloat pots with something, he wont be empty.
Flop J75r (80 pot)
3 Villians X hero bets 60. Dry board, I have pos and my image is tight therefore I bet.
All 3 Villians Calls
Turn 7(320 pot)
brings a flushdraw aswell. All 3 villians X again hero bets pot and is all in. Well I exclude any sets on that flop since that would have bet out or x/r. I also doubt they have Any J7xx either since that would probably do the same. Me having J blocker lessens this to. My image is nitty as crap and betting 2 streets into 3 opponents MUST be strong even for the loose villians. I dont like any rivers since straights,flushesh and overs just beats me... I rep J7xx or JJxx. I hope they will find a fold with 7xxx and maybe even a 55/75. I know you should not aim for getting people off the top of their range but I really think my line looks very strong?
Anyway sb sighs takes some time, says something in the line off ''this is the tighest guy at the table'' at calls off with 7599. The others fold. Is this is a bad bluff based on the fact that one off them was a station or did I just got unlucky HE had a good hand. Perhaps 7xxx he folds? Anyway bad bluff or just a cooler?
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the flop bet is close at best, unless u have a read that these guys usually fold when they check...even with a bdfd otf there are so few good turns for our hand.
i ran a sim and gave mp $20, station 80% and lag $fi50 - $3b10o. i removed all J7+ from their flop ranges, and wraps for mp. gave them all a peeling range of (J+,7,5):96+,64+,75+ and some1 will have 7x+ 70% of the time on the turn. and 75+ 37% of the time. so again, the turn bet is very close, and it will obv only be good if we are very sure they fold trips, and pref fold 75 (i didnt even put 77/55 in their flop x-c range)
im not used to having a nitty image so i would of course never attempt this turn bluff, ppl wont even fold trip 7s to me here let alone a boat (unless villain is a nit and doesnt know me).
in my experience this is what happens live a lot, players think you have it....realize they should lay down their "strong" hand which is actually relatively weak....sometimes they even declare it out loud like he did....and then they call anyway.
we will have 4 outs at best (assuming they dont call with draws but we still dont wanna get called by QQ+ w/fd) which means this bluff needs to work close to 50% of the time. with ur read it may actually be a profitable bluff if ppl are tank-calling with 75. im assuming that means he folds most trips, but its one of those spots that at best its marginally +EV, and worst case scenario we are punting off 70% of our stack on avg here.
as a final note, these numbers are based on my quick assumptions about their ranges which means that you would be able to guesstimate their trips-frequency better than i am, i just wanted to put some numbers on this with the information i had.
id prefer to check the flop. our equity 4way on that flop is 15% even after ive removed J7+ for all villains and 643+ for mp so we really need a ton of feq otf or be sure we can barrel off 1 caller on a lot of turns for the flop bet to be good. even with a nitty image otf ull get peeled by a lot of OE and pair+gs probably.
Thank you for the deep analysis, I am really torn if this is a bad/good play by my part. Guess when It works I feel really clever when it doenst... well I kinda felt like my ears started to grow, I got greyer and a tail popped out off my behind ;).
I must say that the 7599 guy is REALLY calling happy. I have seen him make some really horrible calls before and that HE thinks with a boat is well I guess impressive. But as u said live people just DONT fold unless they are good... wich he is certanly NOT. Have played enough with him to know that. I think the other 2 could have founded a fold with this holding and a 7xxx should fold over 50-60% time.
From my experience people DONT like pairings on the turn since all their ranges consist off mostly straight draws. I doubt I would attempt this kind off play again but whats the point of having an image if u cant use it. Although u should vs people who can think. Perhaps I got unlucky the biggest station in the room got the exact holding I hoped somebody could find a fold with.
I also totally agree with you that x the flop is totally standard but for some reason I felt weakness and got creative. I am new to live plo and still learning so I guess making mistakes like this is part off the process. Anywat thanks for the feedback atleast u see some merits with my play and its not just simply horrible...
hey dont mean to sound like a jerk but trying to get someone off a 7??? we are talking live plo here… and flop bet is really sketch in my opinion
U got a VERY good point man... as said wont probably do this again and still yesterday I bluffed 5 people on a AJJ board with Ten high.... All folded to my suprise and one guy said he did throw away a J so its all based on a situation and if u feel crazy enough. But still I doubt this is good in the long run unless u feel in the zone.
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