2.5-2.5-5 Live 9-handed Top set OOP on the river vs 2 villians.
Posted by erdian
Posted by
erdian
posted in
Mid Stakes
2.5-2.5-5 Live 9-handed Top set OOP on the river vs 2 villians.
Hero sb(800 stack) AAKKs, TAG+Nitty image
villian 1 Early pos semi-lag seems decent by live plo standards.
villian 2 BTN LAG he is a little steamed since he just lost a hand with topset. He plays very aggro when he is steamed. Although HE CAN be creative.
Both villians covers hero.
1 Raise and 2 callers hero calls and so does straddle.(With my image+oop i dont want to 3-bet and turn my hand face up)
Flop 3x6d7d is checked around
Turn Kx, checked around again to villian 2 who bets 80 into 100 pot, hero+ villian 1 calls.
River Tx, hero and villian 1 cheks, villian 2 bets 320 into 340 pot.
The thing IS that villian 2 SHOULD mostly bet the board with his straight when x to him. Also on the turn most people will donk with their made straights to prevent giving free-cards. He has a good spot to steal when checked to him. Still he will have some draws in his range and 89xx got there on the river. Can I call here with my hand and expect to be good, problem is 1 person after me althought he would probably donk his 89xx here for value?
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Vs any standar bet id call. Now he surely does a good job of repping 98. Most ppl dont bluff enough here with this sizing, maniacs do tho. It also looks like a bad spot to get value from 2p betting like this into 2ppl. He probably will bluff like this with 99/88 but there arent enough combos of that for us to call based on that.
If ppl underbluff here in general id lean towards a fold. If his sizing is random or uve seen him bluff in 3w pots id lean towards a call
What do you think about x/r the turn? Both villians should at best have 35 here unless villian 2 decided to get tricky and x back the flop with 85. As said since he was a little steamed he usually just bombs it on the flop in pos...
The good thing about the x/r is I charge all drawing hands and will get some 53 to fold since I have so nitty image. Then again do they expect me to check 85, 2 times? Although I might have something like 89TA with diamonds here.
I think you nailed it when you mentioned that you are three handed and there is one person left to act behind you. I wouldn't count 89 out of his range because he knows that the button is a steamed LAG too. He may be checking the river to induce a bluff (especially since the way the hand played out it seems likely he isn't getting a call from a value bet anyway). Tough spot, but I think it is a fold.
Anyway, if I create ranges for both villians that include the top 20% of hands, all three and four card run downs 9 high, 9+ flush potential, KK, AA, and double pairs 9+, preflop you are 49%/25%/25%
After the flop, with no additional information you are still 49%/25%/25%. So it might have been better to go for a check raise. Because you didn't raise preflop, it should represent well, and you will often win the pot right there. If your check raise gets called by one of the villians, I think you can assume they are on a flush draw, two pair, or small set, and merrily bet turn and river. If your check raise gets four bet, I think it is safe to assume you are behind and happily fold.
Now, if you are heads up (rather than three handed), I think the story changes a little bit. For the most part I think the check raise the flop strategy still works well. However, If you were heads up , I think once have check called the flop, you have kind of committed yourself to check calling the whole way down because you have already decided he doesn't have the straight, your turn gives you a set, and the villian seems like the guy who would three barrel through a flush draw after it goes bust.
Thanks, I realy dint think at ALL about x/r flop but with my nitty image+I did NOT 3-bet preflop I can assume them on VERY correct ranges. I do regret not x/r the turn now since it was my gut instinct to do it and live you can put some much more on feel and tells compared to internet where is much more math/range related.
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