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2/4 PLO vs a tight? back raise line check

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

2/4 PLO vs a tight? back raise line check

BN: $546.55 (136.6 bb) very tight 10/8/0 42 hands
SB: $376 (94 bb) typical reg 35/24/16 94 hands
BB: $351.18 (87.8 bb)
UTG: $384 (96 bb)
Hero (CO): $859 (214.8 bb)
I have a loose image and had been playing a lot of isolated hands versus the 77/20/10 BB.

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6c 8d 9s Ts

UTG folds
Hero(CO) raises to $8
BN calls $8
SB raises to $36
BB folds
Hero calls $28
BN raises to $148
*edit SB folds

The SB just lost a stack and I thought his snap squeeze looked like some steam, he snap folded.

After his backraise, I put the BN on weak AAxx most of the time (90%) with perhaps a few high suited runners and a few high double paired hands.

I have more than enough direct odds to calls versus his range but the SPR post flop is so small I feel that I have to fold.
I assume this is standard.

How about for deeper stacks? I feel like I would call here anytime I have >250bb effective.

This seems like an easy fold but I am not 100% and wanted to make sure I am not burning money by folding.

Does my estimate of the BN's range seem correct?

Thanks for your time




6 Comments

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TJ Serdar 11 years, 11 months ago
Seems like a clear call to me. When they both have AA(the times SB shoves) your doing pretty great equity wise 3 way, and the times SB calls, you flop pretty well.

If you call and SB calls, there's 148*3+4=448 in the pot and sb(228) btn(399).

So you need to have 488+288+399+399/399=25.4% equity 3 way to stack off(assuming SB and BTN never fold any flops, which is probably not accurate)

You stack off 71% of the time with average equity of 53%

You fold 29% of the time.

$calling=(1574*.53)-399-112=+323.22

(323.22*.71)+(-112*.29)=EV(call)
EV(call)=229.49-32.48=197.01.

So folding pre flop here is a massive mistake.

If it always goes SB checks, you check, BTN shoves, the times SB folds, you need 28% which you have >65% of the time and your certainly making money in that scenario too.

So yeah, don't fold.
hokum 11 years, 11 months ago
Well I butchered my post, the SB folded (sorry about that.)

So I am really up against the BTN's fairly obvious weakish AAxx.

I see your point about calling, and particularly because I can put him on such a narrow range, it will make post flop easy.

I just had $38 invested so I didn't see how it could be to huge of a leak to fold.

.









TJ Serdar 11 years, 11 months ago
Ok, so I gave BTN the bottom 70% of AA**'s here.

You need to flop 35.2% to get it in.

You do that 75% of the time with average equity of 64%

25% of the time you call pre and fold flop.

$calling=(1134*64)-399-112=+214.76

EV(call)=(214.76*.75)-(112*.25)
EV(call)=161.07-28
EV(call)=133.07

So calling will get you back 133.07 on average, a net profit of +$21.07 or +5.25bb.
ZzzzzzzzZZzzzzzzz 11 years, 11 months ago
How do you think 10/8 player's range looks like when he flats on the button? How does that change SB's sqzinng range? I don't think that calling with gapped one suit rundown with the worst relative position is +EV considering the fact that BN might have weakish AA and repot. The best scenario for you is them both having AA but even then sqzer most often shows up with AA$ds and your eq is about 36-37%. Putting yourself in a high variance spot either way.

I'm a nit in sqzed pots :D
hokum 11 years, 11 months ago
This mirrors my thinking. I had $38 invested and could see a flop against a very obvious range with a hand that has 40% versus his range. I thought we were to shallow for me to make a profitable call, but now I am rethinking this type of situation.

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