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$2/$4 HU 200bbs on monotone flop 3bet pre

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$2/$4 HU 200bbs on monotone flop 3bet pre

BB: Villain: $863
SB: Hero: $800
Preflop ($6.00) (2 Players)
Hero was dealt 9 8 7 6
Hero raises to $12, Villain raises to $36, Hero calls $24
Villain is fishy on the loose-aggressive side, and through 75 hands HU he had a 25% 3bet%. I saw him 3bet high pairs (QQ+) with weakish side cards and many random semi-connected/suited hands. I'd assume he would only 5bet with AAxx or maybe AKQJds (I hadn't 4bet much to this point). I feel like I missed a good chance to 4bet being deep here when he'd probably expect me to only have AAxx. He's the type to bluff any flop that doesn't hit my perceived range so I could easily induce on flops that hit my hand and bluff high card flops.
Flop ($78.00) Q T 4 (2 Players)
Villain checks, Hero checks
This is the main part of the hand I am curious about. I thought that he would bet most flushes and most hands that completely missed (I've seen him cbet the nuts on a lockdown board earlier). I think he'd check 2 pair/sets/top pair/str8 draws and possibly some flushes.

So I put him on a weakish/capped range (but not air) and I don't think he's ever checking to fold. He does get stubborn and I could see him c/calling 3 streets with a set/2 pair some % of the time. That said, I'd expect him to fold non-flushes on brick turns after 2 big bets most of the time. What betting/checking ranges should I have on the flop and what default sizing would you guys use? When I bet, do I always 3barrel brick turns and rivers?
Turn ($78.00) Q T 4 3 (2 Players)
Villain checks, Hero bets $72, Villain calls $72
I decided to check back my weak flush on flop which I think I should have some of in my checking back range. His turn check seems real weak (but didn't necessarily think I'd get a turn fold) so my plan was to pot turns and rivers with most of range I checked the flop with.
River ($222.00) Q T 4 3 7 (2 Players)
Villain checks, Hero bets $216, Villain folds
As stated, I think I'd pot here with most hands I have (and expect him to fold a high % on the river).

Thoughts?

7 Comments

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OnceItRun 12 years, 1 month ago
Given your relative hand strength I don't think you will get 3 streets of value...at most 2. So, I'd like to bet flop and turn as a standard here...it is the widest part of your range that you rep, so you are the most likely to get called from his weaker range. I think he will c/c AKQ*, QT**, random T4**/TT** (reasonable assumption). Your line is stronger than if you bet flop+turn, especially with this sizing.

Also, yeah 4betting will be great against his range.
Brian Hamilton 12 years, 1 month ago
I'd agree that betting flop/turn with flushes is the best play in a vacuum, but shouldn't I have some flushes in my check back range? This seemed like an okay time to mix it up.

I was really wondering on how to construct ranges on flops like these (locked down boards) when villain 3bets pre and checks flop, given my reads (that he cbets a polarized range on flop). I'm also curious about sizing with my betting range on flop and sizing for continuing on turn/river bricks.
Maikel1983 12 years, 1 month ago
I agree, that its nice to have some strong hands in your check-back range. Weak flushes, 2p etc. Which can stand heat on turn/river. However, when villain checks again on turn, i think he has the intention to check-fold. When villain check-calls I put him on really weak range on turn.

Why would u bet pot on the river? I don't see villain hero-call on river. So, I prefer a betsize, which might induce something like 76$-82$.
Brian Hamilton 12 years, 1 month ago
I bet pot on the river because I think it is the best sizing for my range. I have a lot bad draws/weak pairs/air in my checking range on the flop. My plan was to pot all my hands on the turn after he checks a second time since his range was very weak. I didn't think he'd necessarily realize I'd have a high % of bluffs, or at least not be able to do anything about it since his range was capped (while mine wasn't). When he does call, I expect him to fold many rivers, especially to a pot size bet. He can't have flushes while I can (I do in this case). I feel that betting pot is best with my range instead of betting small and inducing more calls.

I feel like it's better to have a plan for my entire range to make the most $$ in this spot vs. this opponent, instead of trying to be cute with my particular hand.
Maikel1983 12 years, 1 month ago
I am by no means great PLO player, but I am here to learn. I have some problems understanding, why potting
turn/river is good for your whole range.

Flop
- Villain
caps his range on the flop by checking (polarised cbetting range).

- HERO
caps in my opinion his range as well by checking back the flop, HERO's range doesn't contain nut flushes or Ad/Kd blockers, whereby it is possible for HERO to tripple barrel as bluff with Ad/Kd blocker. I think HERO will bet on the flop QQxx,TTxx as well to protect your hand, whereby it's unlikely HERO gets CRed on the flop. When HERO check's back the flop, I agree your range is bad draws/weak pairs/air + some weak flushes. Whereby the bad draws, are likely straight draws/WR.

Turn
- Villain checks again, I agree it's good to bet turn to fold villain's weak range.

- HERO
The 3s on the turn can even improve HERO's equity with hand like, 6543,A652,A52x. Bet your weak draws J98x,KJTx, And I think it's good to protect your hand with QTxx on turn.

River
- Villain, I have no clue what villain has in this spot on the river!

- HERO
River range
J98x,KJTx,A52x missed, turning Tx or other hands into a bluff.
6543,A652, hit
AQxx, I think I prefer to check since I don't have a clue about villain's range.

I think HERO can comfortably valuebet this range of hands. Valuebetting range, river; QTxx,Q7xx,6543,A652,weak flushes.

In my view, by potting the river u want to rep nuts/air range. As played, whereby HERO caps his range on flop, obviously weak-flushes are "nuts" on river. I prefer to bet smaller otr, whereby it allows me to valuebet 2p+,straights,weak flushes and it allows me to bluff cheaper. Maybe, I am completely wrong with this?

Ofcourse, I agree it's better to have general strategy/betsize for your whole range. It was just a suggestion
to mix it up, to bet small otr once to see how villain reacts, to a non-standard betsize.
Brian Hamilton 12 years, 1 month ago
Thanks for posting Maikel and you have good points. On the flop I think I want to include QTxx in my betting range. I also think Q7xx may be too weak to valuebet on the river. That leaves us with straights/flushes for our valuerange otr and villain can't have a better hand than us.

Here's what I think villains range is on the river: AAxx, KKxx, Qxxx, high wraps/gutter hands possibly that paired the flop (like AQJ9, KJT8, JT97 etc.), 2 pair, sets (discounted a bit cuz he might bet turn with them). Keep in mind he 3bet preflop so he doesn't have all combos that contain Qxxx, sets, 2 pair.

The river can give him some more 2 pair hands, but I think a lot of the time he has 1 pair. I think that both bet sizes will get him to fold those 1 pair hands so a smaller bet does have value. I'm less sure about his calling frequencies when he has 2 pair and he may call a smaller bet a decent % of the time.

I'm not sure that betting pot is the best play with our range but it definitely has merit. It puts a ton of pressure on him when his range is capped while I can have flushes (and more straights than him). He doesn't have much to fight us with, and he will end up folding a ton. This is what we want, because our range is still weighted toward weak hands since we bet the turn wide.

I think both bet sizes will show a profit. I could be convinced that he folds enough to a smaller sizing that we don't need to be betting pot. If he's ever stubborn enough to call the pot bet on river, it might cost us more when we bluff to make it worth it. I still like the concept of putting max pressure on him with his capped range, but your thoughts have made me think more about it, so thank you.
jloo87 12 years, 1 month ago
I think on boards like these its better to bet and barrel often until you see how villain plays on lockdown boards like these. Most players have different tendencies on these boards and after noting how he light he peels or whether he fight backs a lot then adjust and develop a different strategy vs.

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