20PLO light value bet on the river
Posted by oboltys88
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oboltys88
posted in
Low Stakes
20PLO light value bet on the river
SB: $70.30
BB: $22.78
HJ: $29.55
CO: $53.23
BN: $40.02 (Hero)
BB: $22.78
HJ: $29.55
CO: $53.23
BN: $40.02 (Hero)
Preflop
($0.30)
(5 Players)
Hero was dealt
9
8
J
K
HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.40, SB calls $0.30, BB folds
HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.40, SB calls $0.30, BB folds
call open in SB 42%. 3bet 0%
Flop
($1.00)
4
J
2
(2 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $0.50,
SB calls $0.50
PR+OE>, 2PR, 44, 22, OP
Turn
($2.00)
J
(2 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $1.40,
SB calls $1.40
OE>+FD, OP+FD, SET>-(J4, J2)
River
($4.80)
2
(2 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $2.40,
SB calls $2.40
Assuming no c/r range for simplicity since i b/f this hand anyway:
1. standard c/c: SET>, 1OP, 2OP
ev1 = 0.79*0.65*($7.2)+0.79*0.35*(-$2.4)+0.21*($4.8) = $3.7 - $0.66 + $1 = $4 = 20 bb
2. tight c/c: SET>-(SET=+(2, JZZZ)) (any trips or boat excluding exactly trip 2's and exactly trip J's with 3 low cards)
ev2 = 0.39*0.184*($7.2)+0.39*0.816*(-$2.4)+0.61*($4.8) = $0.5 - $0.76 + $2.9 = $2.6 = 13 bb
if i keep J4 and J2 in his range on the turn
ev1 = 0.85*0.5*($7.2)+0.85*0.5*(-$2.4)+0.15*($4.8) = $3 - $1 + $0.7 = $2.7 = 13.5bb
ev2 = 0.55*0.11*($7.2)+0.55*0.89*(-$2.4)+0.45*($4.8) = $0.4 - $1.17 + $2.16 = $1.4 = 7 bb
Conclusion. If i play perfect v a c/r (that is only lose my bet and nothing more) then value bet is +ev.
1. standard c/c: SET>, 1OP, 2OP
ev1 = 0.79*0.65*($7.2)+0.79*0.35*(-$2.4)+0.21*($4.8) = $3.7 - $0.66 + $1 = $4 = 20 bb
2. tight c/c: SET>-(SET=+(2, JZZZ)) (any trips or boat excluding exactly trip 2's and exactly trip J's with 3 low cards)
ev2 = 0.39*0.184*($7.2)+0.39*0.816*(-$2.4)+0.61*($4.8) = $0.5 - $0.76 + $2.9 = $2.6 = 13 bb
if i keep J4 and J2 in his range on the turn
ev1 = 0.85*0.5*($7.2)+0.85*0.5*(-$2.4)+0.15*($4.8) = $3 - $1 + $0.7 = $2.7 = 13.5bb
ev2 = 0.55*0.11*($7.2)+0.55*0.89*(-$2.4)+0.45*($4.8) = $0.4 - $1.17 + $2.16 = $1.4 = 7 bb
Conclusion. If i play perfect v a c/r (that is only lose my bet and nothing more) then value bet is +ev.
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