200plo - oop river decision in 3b pot

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200plo - oop river decision in 3b pot

Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (5 Players) SB: $238.70 (Hero)
BB: $502.95
UTG: $80.00
CO: $89.75
BN: $261.95
Preflop ($3.00) Hero is SB with 7 7 3 A
3 folds, Hero raises to $4.00, BB raises to $12.00, Hero calls $8.00
Flop ($24.00) A K A
Hero checks, BB bets $16.00, Hero calls $16.00
Turn ($56.00) A K A 8
Hero checks, BB checks
River ($56.00) A K A 8 5
Hero

HUD is off at the moment, so we're going old school.

Vill hasn't been getting out of line pre, making this a thin pre-flop call oop. Vill has seen hero fairly active but no evidence yet that he's widening his ranges to adjust.

So, in a vac, river thoughts? Even basic villains may see a 1/2 pot bet as weak, so I'm on the fence between x/c and b/f here.

Anyone just x/f'g river?

7 Comments

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DMSJ 9 years, 10 months ago

Whats up with the minraise pre? Just complete/call, minopening kinda induces him to raise more often, putting your exact hand in a crappy spot pre and post. After we x/c the flop, i am 90% sure villain won't valuebet worse OTR, nor will he turn almost anything into a bluff. That said, once we bet I don't expect getting called light anyways, as we're not repping anything less than a boat really (no point turning Axxx into a bluff since its very likely still ahead of his 3b+cbetting range OTR). What makes x/c or x/f (depending on sizing e.g.) much more inviting than betting, missing value from occassional bluffs + having to fold (or ugly decision at least) to a minraise.

Nital J 9 years, 10 months ago

At this point in session, this vill wasn't 3betting light ever, so the difference between min raising and 2.5x'g is negligible. He could raise light if we limped, hence the min raise.

As played, I think 1/2 pot river-fold is fine since I'm assuming he's valuing river boats for more than 1/2 pot (and we'd have to call?) and since there are a few hands from which we can extract some thin value.

I posted this virtually real-time since I was surprised he checked turn and raised river, if I'm him I'm barreling away once I get called on flop. Many ABC villains are still inclined to check turn for deception, I guess.

Lifted Mindset 9 years, 10 months ago

Hey Nital J,

If he is 3-betting a lot. I think your min-raise is fine with this hand.

OTF - Standard.

OTT - Standard. But now that he checks turn, there is no more money going into the pot unless he rivers his set out or hits a K and maybe Q high flush.

OTR - This is a check. The only hand I can imagine we would call flop and bluff rivers is QJ10x and we gave him no credit for hitting this flop. Which I actually don't given you said he has a wide 3-bettor and the way the hand was played. The best way to extract value is to check/call his bluffs and lower flushes like K and maybe Q high flushes. We don't want to be raised off our hand and when we bet we represent full houses and nut flushes only. Which is exactly what we would have. We just hope he finds a bluff or has a lower flush worth betting and it's an easy call.

-Lifted Mindset

Nital J 9 years, 10 months ago

He's not a wide 3bettor, or at least wasn't at this point in the session.

The question here is whether it is better for EV to bet-fold or to x/call. If he's never bluffing river and always betting more than half pot for value, bet-fold seems better, but if he has bluffs in his river range, obv we prefer to x/c. I just don't think many villains bluff this spot OTR after getting called on flop in a 3b pot.

Hence the Q of whether half pot-folding river is best.

Lifted Mindset 9 years, 10 months ago

With the action, I think we can check/fold. When we call the flop, we pretty much are saying I either have 3 aces or a King. When he checks the turn, I think on the river, we won't get any value from betting. Only better will call at this point. I think if he makes a flush on the river, he would be happy to show it down. If you check and he bets, he's representing full houses only or K high flush for thin value. I'd just check/fold versus a guy who's solid.

I thought you wrote he was getting out of hand with the 3 bets. Since he hasn't. This is a clear check/fold. He might check turn for deception hoping you make a flush or hit your QJ10 straight draw.

-Lifted Mindset

midori 9 years, 10 months ago

I'd check/call. I don't hate check/folding, but think it's slightly suboptimal (will explain it below).

If you bet this river, he will have a hard time finding enough bluffs in your range, and he can actually lay down some flushes. On the other hand, if you check to him, he can go for value with some of those, hoping to get called by your trips (which you wouldn't value bet yourself, by the way). I'm not sure this will result in a big difference in EV, but something to think about.

He can also have some air that he just bet the flop and gave up with. If you bet into him, he will almost certainly gonna fold those, whereas he might bluff with them if you check again. Again, I'm not sure if he will do this often enough, but it is worth considering.

Against his boats, I think one bet should be going in anyway. When he checks back turn, sure, it's possible that he is trapping you or hoping that you would catch up, but it's also likely that he just doesn't have a boat on the turn. We block lots of boats too, with our As. If we x/f our nut flushes here, that means we are only continuing with boats, and I think that's probably too tight against a range that looks somewhat capped. (On the other hand, if he bet again on the turn and you somehow called, it's perfectly fine to call only with boats on the river.)

As a sidenote, if we had a similar hand with As but no flushes, I think it's probably a good hand to bluff raise on the river. For the same reasons - we block lots of boats, he can be thinly value betting some flushes, and we probably can't call down profitably, etc.

By the way, I think it's perfectly fine to limp and call a raise with this hand preflop. Also, just because he didn't 3bet a lot doesn't mean we should choose whatever opening sizing, because he will very likely call a lot more often against a min raise than against a 2.5x or 3x raise. Unless he was 3betting very infrequently AND folding a bunch to our open raise, I'd either limp/call or just open for 2.5x or 3x raise, although that's probably a small difference.

-- midori

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