200nl Drawing Equity Concept on Turn: Big draw with no/little fold equity multiway
Posted by 24Caliber
Posted by
24Caliber
posted in
Mid Stakes
200nl Drawing Equity Concept on Turn: Big draw with no/little fold equity multiway
CO: $243
BN: $186.40
SB: $111.60
BB: $196 (Hero)
UTG: $205
HJ: $237.80
BN: $186.40
SB: $111.60
BB: $196 (Hero)
UTG: $205
HJ: $237.80
UTG is playing 27/20/6 over 1.8k hands (12% raise first UTG) and the button 52/16/4 over 80 hands
Preflop
($4.00)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
8
4
5
A
UTG raises to $6, HJ folds, CO folds, BN calls $6, SB folds, Hero calls $4
UTG raises to $6, HJ folds, CO folds, BN calls $6, SB folds, Hero calls $4
I want to break down my hand a little bit before continuing on the hand (trying to fine tune my pre-flop hand selection as I'm finding that a small mistake pre-flop can lead to big mistakes on later streets):
We're are out of position multiway and the pot size is relatively small to stacks as we are about 100bb deep; so this is not very advantageous for us (i.e. deeper we are the more value players in position have).
Our hand contains a nut flush draw holding, which is very good news for "coolering" people and being able to play draws aggressively post-flop, however the 4 cards as a whole don't work amazingly well together - A458, there are some straight draws but not very well connected as the gaps in the hand are both 2 cards, and they are not very high (ideally we want to have a higher straight or straight draw than someone else right?)
Our immediate odds pre-flop are very good (but this will be the same for any 4 cards though) and we close the action
So in my eyes just about strong enough to defend - what do other people think?
What do other people also think about defending with hands that are almost naked nut flush draws (e.g. Ah8hQx4x) in this spot?
We're are out of position multiway and the pot size is relatively small to stacks as we are about 100bb deep; so this is not very advantageous for us (i.e. deeper we are the more value players in position have).
Our hand contains a nut flush draw holding, which is very good news for "coolering" people and being able to play draws aggressively post-flop, however the 4 cards as a whole don't work amazingly well together - A458, there are some straight draws but not very well connected as the gaps in the hand are both 2 cards, and they are not very high (ideally we want to have a higher straight or straight draw than someone else right?)
Our immediate odds pre-flop are very good (but this will be the same for any 4 cards though) and we close the action
So in my eyes just about strong enough to defend - what do other people think?
What do other people also think about defending with hands that are almost naked nut flush draws (e.g. Ah8hQx4x) in this spot?
Flop
($20.00)
7
6
2
(3 Players)
Hero bets $16,
UTG calls $16,
BN calls $16
I like leading for value mainly and because I believe that the flop is connected enough for at least one player to continue - if I check I'm worried that both players may check behind (the button is a very loose passive player and with that in mind it's not the best flop for the 12% UTG raiser to C bet multiway, his C bet % is 60) and if this happens I miss an opportunity to start building a pot vs weaker draws.
Pretty easy jam if someone raises my lead.
Pretty easy jam if someone raises my lead.
Turn
($68.00)
K
(3 Players)
Hero bets $40,
UTG raises to $83,
BN calls $83,
Hero calls $43
I was unsure what to do on this turn, I felt my hand was strong enough to continue betting / get it in. I don't feel that there will be many KK combos (maybe like KKxx if with the King high FD), or K7xx combos, and seeing as I would expect a set to raise the flop, I actually thought I had some fold equity on the turn...maybe I am delusional ?:)
A check-jam line works a lot nicer for my stack size if I want some fold equity but I thought they would both just check behind as the King rarely helps either of them and is hard for them to represent imo, and it can't be that bad to continue building a pot with so many draws.
Once the UTG player clicks back the flop and the button calls...I think the UTG has a combo like the fore-mention KKxx and the button a weaker version of my draw/s.
Although now I think about it in slow time, I'd actually expect UTG to just jam with KKxx and the K high flush draw...
Anyway here is my main question about the hand and the concept I am struggling with: am I better off getting it in now with my monster draw on the turn, or flatting and seeing if I hit because I only actually have ace high and can be pretty confident that I have no fold equity if I do jam, but still confident I will get paid if I hit the river ?
When the action came back round to me I had 134 behind, there was 274 in the middle and it was 43 more for me to call...so my jam would be an additional 91 into a total pot of 408 (317+91) for the remaining 2 players - obviously the button's odds will be even better if UTG calls. They had 100 and 81 behind at this point.
A check-jam line works a lot nicer for my stack size if I want some fold equity but I thought they would both just check behind as the King rarely helps either of them and is hard for them to represent imo, and it can't be that bad to continue building a pot with so many draws.
Once the UTG player clicks back the flop and the button calls...I think the UTG has a combo like the fore-mention KKxx and the button a weaker version of my draw/s.
Although now I think about it in slow time, I'd actually expect UTG to just jam with KKxx and the K high flush draw...
Anyway here is my main question about the hand and the concept I am struggling with: am I better off getting it in now with my monster draw on the turn, or flatting and seeing if I hit because I only actually have ace high and can be pretty confident that I have no fold equity if I do jam, but still confident I will get paid if I hit the river ?
When the action came back round to me I had 134 behind, there was 274 in the middle and it was 43 more for me to call...so my jam would be an additional 91 into a total pot of 408 (317+91) for the remaining 2 players - obviously the button's odds will be even better if UTG calls. They had 100 and 81 behind at this point.
River
($317.00)
J
(3 Players)
Hero checks,
UTG checks,
BN checks
Final Pot
BN has
6
9
K
2
Hero has
8
4
5
A
UTG has
Q
T
Q
K
BN
wins $314
On the turn I had 53%, UTG 17%, button 31%...so I'm pretty bitter really that I didn't get it in and made a misread on UTG's range, although I did only have ace high and no fold equity? - hence why I'm dizzy
As always any feedback appreciated :)
Steve
Loading 5 Comments...
Lets starts with your pre flop analysis which i think is pretty good and this is def. a hand i would defend even vs. UTG raise. Defending other hand very much depends on your opponents cant really give a precise answer to this.
OTF i like leading and trying to take it down or x/r as well, i think bove are fine.
OTT i think you made a mistake, with these stack sizes i think it is a good spot to go for a x/r because you will still have good fold equity and it is not the end of the world if it gets checked thru and you just realize your equity. It will be an easy decision OTR OOP vs 2 players.
The way the hand turned out i would prefer to bet bigger OTT at least 50 so i get ppl to fold because you dont have any showdown value right now. Once you get min raised no point of gii here cuz you have no fold equity and no SHDN value so easy profitable call with your draw and easy river decision!
Hey, so I like the preflop play although don't think there's much to say on it. Seems standard to me.
Flop is interesting, my default is to check/pot hands like this, but if you are saying the villains are on the passive side I'm a fan of the lead (checking through is value missed).
Turn my gut is to bet/shove, not bet/call given raise size, stack-depth, and the cold-caller - basically I expect that we're pushing a pretty big equity edge here so should probs put the money in as opposed to wait for a hit and potentially not get the action we deserve. To check this, I ran some sims and we figure to have >43% equity against reasonable ranges here (basically putting UTG on a made hand and the other guy on either top two or a combo-draw). If that's the case, shoving should do great, although I can totally understand your flat if you think you'll get a shove called OTR when you hit.
So yeah, I don't mind your line in this hand if you think you can get paid on the river when you hit your million outs, but if you aren't completely certain these guys will pay off wide, then I'd just ship the money, ride the variance train, and be happy you got it in WAAAAY good!
If we weren´t 3 way OR there wasn´t that much stack left as it is, would you still shove or play the bet/call - donk river allin if we improve?
Am i right with the assumption that you prefer a shove is that there is still 50bb behind and 2 players in the hand? If it was HU with these sizes still a shove right?
thx!
If we were HU, I would flat if I didn't think I was a favourite (which if ranges don't change, I don't think we are), but shove if I figured him for some combo draws or me for any fold equity (like if he's folding some % of the time here, jamming is absurdly profitable). For HU, you can pretty easily just run range sims to work out what's ideal.
And yes, your assumptions about my reasoning are all correct.
Thanks for the feedback guys, I'm still a bit dizzy about the concept of getting it in with the best equity but having no (or very little) fold equity and with a hand that has to improve to win...I haven't decide what the best line is yet lol^
Be the first to add a comment