200nl: 22% Pot Odds River Call with Set / 3 bet pot

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200nl: 22% Pot Odds River Call with Set / 3 bet pot

BB: BB: $269.20
UTG: UTG: $173.26
HJ: MP: $639.06
CO: CO: $246
BN: Hero: $619.80
SB: SB: $448.89
Preflop ($4.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt K 8 8 K
UTG raises to $8, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $20, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls $12
Flop ($44.00) T 5 2 (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $22, UTG calls $22
Turn ($88.00) 8 (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $55, UTG calls $55
River ($198.00) 7 (2 Players)
UTG bets $76.26, and is all in

Hero ?

With such good odds on the river (22%), should this always be a call...is there enough in the Villains range of bluffs / weaker sets or 2 pairs that can justify it.

The villain is playing 70/26/3.5 over 160 hands.  His river aggression is 37(30)


5 Comments

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Imfish4u 11 years, 1 month ago

Getting such good odds, being close to top of our range here and the obvious straight draw didn t get there this is a pretty easy call imo unless he is very nitty which this guy is NOT.

roubo 11 years, 1 month ago

this is a spot where a fish that aggro can show u a stupid bluff (also a made hand weaker than yours, sometimes). So a call with such good odds is in order.

ZenFish 11 years, 1 month ago

A call seems obvious on first sight. If you post a hh we can run a Bluff Catching analysis in PokerJuice to investigate further. Just search/replace screen names with positions in notepad to anonymize it.


24Caliber 11 years, 1 month ago

What do you need me to do Zen ? What is PokerJuice ?

ZenFish 11 years, 1 month ago

PokerJuice is a new PLO analysis tool that has received some attention here lately:

http://www.runitonce.com/plo/is-this-the-ultimate-weapon-for-plo/

I'm very enthusiastic about it and have made a HOWTO doc (public Google doc) with analyses picked from RIO hands:

http://www.runitonce.com/plo/rio-pokerjuiceodds-oracle-analyses/

RIO PokerJuice/Odds Oracle Analyses (link to gdoc)

It should give you a good idea about what PJ can do. There are two Bluff Catching spots analyzed there, and we could do a similar analysis for your hand.

If you want to do that, just post the HH as plain text here (assuming it's PokerStars or iPoker, which PJ currently reads). The way PJ currently works is that it reads hand histories. Change player names with positions and set yourself as "Hero" first, if you want to anonymize it (and change the hand ID number to 1 or something).



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