200 zoom: 500bb more with 4th nuts?
Posted by jimmyhat1000
Posted by
jimmyhat1000
posted in
Mid Stakes
200 zoom: 500bb more with 4th nuts?
SB: $220.92
BB: $197
UTG: $1253.77
HJ: $254.61
CO: $324.51
UTG raises to $7, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero calls $7, SB calls $6, BB folds
Reasons for jamming -
We block AA and we have to assume he 3 bets the flop with AA a lot of the time so we can remove that combo somewhat. If he does get to the turn with AA this way, i don't think he always decides to CR it either, even though given our blockers he will have AA + NFD about half the time.
77 unlikely although possible, AcKc77 or something.
How he plays his 45 I think is a big key to this hand. He doesn't raise pot on the turn. His sizing is going to leave $769 behind into a $977 pot on the river. He could, if he raised pot, leave $692 behind into $1131 (I think I got that math right, point is he doesn't raise pot which if he is going to raise with 45, i assume he would). Also I think a lot of his 45 combos just call the turn. 45 with a flush redraw I can definitely see him raising, but naked 45 I think just flat calls a lot to avoid being in check / decide for almost 400bbs spot on a lot of rivers.
He can also have all of the huge draw combos with A789, AK89, A89T, although the weaker parts of those probably just flat call the turn. He can have double FD hands as well. AcXcXhXh
Reasons for folding -
Its 500 bb's and we could be almost dead. If he has a monster draw we are only a 60-65% anyway so we're not that big a favorite.
Reasons for calling -
I didn't want to have to make a decision on all the bad rivers as well, it also gives him the chance to check / fold some of his draws that I want to get the money in against now. I could definitely be convinced that calling is the best play though.
Thoughts?
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it depends if you are wearing your gambling-gloves or not^^
but I would personally fold it because you rep very strong and yet he start building a huge pot by raising. I think a hand like KhK5h4 makes a lot of sense, he probably puts you on a set and wants to keep you in, but not giving you the implieds you may hope for because he can just c/f on pairing rivers.
Think about how the hand would play out if you called the flop instead. You have a hand that's usually best right there, but you can't stack off vs a sane player (note that his c-bet strips lots of air from his range), and the hands that call will have decent equity vs you (+ bluffing options).
If you get 3-bet, you are probably toast. And the hands that call will be precisely the hands that can make your life difficult on those low-visibility turn/river runouts. And there are many of those. Having position helps, but there are still many difficult turn/river big-pot scenarios to navigate if you raise flop. If you plan to check a lot later in those spots, maybe you're better off playing a smaller pot from the get-go.
Now, a drawy board could be seen as an argument for protecting your hand immediately with a raise, but is it? Not necessarily. It depends on how well your hand plays in big pots on future streets, which in turn depends on the number and quality of your outs.
A good rule of thumb is that big pots in deep-stacked PLO doesn't revolve around the nuts, but around the nuts + nutty redraws. Also, raising early to protect a probably-best-but-vulnerable hand isn't always worth doing, because it puts too much of your stack at risk later. Balancing these two concepts well becomes increasingly important as your stack gets deeper.
So although I get your flop raise, I don't think it's automatic. Also, think about the value range you're repping. It's pretty narrow. If Villain has the blockers that matter most (A + Kh), he can put mucho pressure on you.
given that we have an A-blocker and given stackdepth I prefer raising flop much more then calling. the most likely hands UTG holds are ABBB or some kind of flushdraw and we do have pretty good visibility vs those hands actually.
One could argue that we always 3bet AAxx preflop and therefore can't rep it postflop but on the other hand I'd really doubt that anybody on zoom200 is actually thinking about that and turning a TP hand into a huge bluff risking a 600bb stack to make us fold. they rather play it passivly, weighting our range more towards semibluffs and get inclined to call down light - allowing us to vbet pretty thinly both turn and river on most non-flush or non-4-straight runouts
Some things to think about:
When he calls our raise and checks to us on blank turns and rivers, we are happy. We do well against top pair, two pair and bottom set.
But he won't play a big pot with those hands. The hands we beat on the flop won't matter when he wants to play a big pot on the turn and river. When that happens, we're in trouble.
So while a flop raise can get value (and protection) in isolation, we have to keep future streets in mind. When we are unlikely to end up with the best hand in a huge pot, we need to think before we choose a path that leads us towards those huge-pot scenarios.
One problem with our hand (apart from the fact that a flop three-bet will make us vomit) is lack of reliable outs. We have three of them. The rest of our improvers won't really make us happy when Villain wants to play for stacks, or makes a stack-threatening action that indicates he might want to.
So the way I see it we have a good-but-not-great hand for the situation, we have position, and we don't mind future action (yet). If Villain bets the turn, we don't mind, and if SB check-raises the flop, that's fine. But if we build a big pot now, we might not be able to play future streets so comfortably.
So let's call and plan for a moderate pot vs UTG, where this hand should perform well. Position ensures we act with with the maximum amount of information on every street, and every street will get bet, should we want to. Calling also protects our calling range (presumably wide, sitting deep IP) on future blanks and board pairing cards, so there are side-benefits.
ZenFish although i agree with what u are saying i'm thinking this : If we don't raise flop with this hand , what are we raising flop with ? Will u be more inclined to raise with A6KhXh or KKh4h5 or stuff like that ? because it seems to me that if we don't raise this hand we shouldn't have a raising range at all in this spot
That's a good follow-up discussion:
Do we have a flop raising range on this board?
Flop raising range ramble
The board is ace-low-low with a flush draw. A somewhat dry texture, even with the flush draw. The strong combo draws that are possible (754/542 with hearts) are unlikely for all players after an UTG raise + two coldcalls, because the lowest cards in the deck get played much less.
We don't have many sets after flatting pre (we would 3-bet lots of AA, and we're unlikely to coldcall many low paired hands). We don't have many top two pair, and when we do, it's rarely strong. We might have flatted A654, but we rarely have top two pair + a high flush draw.
Because in order to flat an A6** hand, a nut-suit would often be required. So in order to have top two + decent hearts we would often require an A6B* double-suited hand, and these are rare (and if we'd had a hand like AKQ6$ds, we might have 3-bet it).
We rarely have one of the few strong draws (most 754*/542* are trash and would be folded, and when we have one of the double-suited combinations we might 3-bet instead of flat). And we never have one of the low wraps + a high flush draw, because we don't flat hands like K754 (we might flat some ds hands like this, but they would also be 3B candidates, and they are very rare anyway).
And when we do have middle/bottom set, two pair, or a good draw, these are not hands we're happy to stack off with 600 bb deep against an opponent who still has all the AA in his range. Of course, we should not only raise when we want to stack off. We can raise to take some fold equity, call 3-bets with the best hands and play on.
But I don't like it much to split my flop range when it's so capped to begin with. I will have lots of hands that want to call. Because of these two factors in combination, I like the idea of getting to the turn by calling with my range. Then I can use position to make good turn/river decisions with more disguised range that includes everything from top pair to sets.
In addition to board texture/range consideration, we can think about UTG and his range. We think UTG is a reasonable player, based on the small sample we have. As such, we don't expect him to c-bet mindlessly 600 bb deep and out of position. He's probably also opening pretty tight from UTG to begin with, given stacks. Finally, we have a 3rd player in the pot. He has checked, but he's still there, and we should play somewhat tighter and more cautiously because of him.
So all in all, this is a board texture where there should not be a lot of heavy action between rationally thinking players with deep stacks. This confrontation should result in lots of small/moderate pots, because it's so rare that two players are both strong enough to play a big pot on this board. So I don't see the lack of a of raising range as an indication that we're doing something wrong, quite the opposite.
That said, if we think UTG is opening too wide and/or c-betting too wide and/or playing weakly against aggression, we might raise him plenty anyway. As an exploitative move with hands like weak top pair (blocker bluff) + some semblance of a draw.
In defense of aggressive play
Caution is often prudent, but it's important that we don't get timid in position with deep stacks just because we rarely have a hand good enough to stack off with. That's not an excuse to go passive, because deep-stacked big-bet games is all about representing hands.
But when we're handcuffed by the combination of board texture, our own preflop range, a seemingly decent oppponent, and the presence of a third player in the pot, it makes sense to continue mostly by calling, rarely by raising, and perhaps no raising at all.
This seems like one of those spots to me. But I don't play ante-deep games, so my experience in 600 bb scenarios is limited. I would love to hear the default game plan (as in: sound default, not exploitative moves against specific players or presumed field weaknesses) of experienced deep-stack players on this board.
/end flop raising range ramble
I have to agree with everything ZenFish says in this thread.
Question: What kind of flop peeling-range do you put Villain on? And should Hero even bet the turn?
turn is a must bet even if he didn't block the 5 we are playing against an UTG range 45 is very very rare
no hate on the sizing chosen? given the sizing hero chose i think its more of a fold as i expect him to react more straight forward. id prefer something closer to 84ish if were intending to call a raise
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