I think you should be raising the turn most of the time given that you have top overpair / potential trips / nuts flush draw. You shouldn't even be seeing monsters under the bed at this point but rather you should be betting your hand while its still live. If you consider his range you're the favorite. You have 65% equity preflop and 63% on the flop and turn so that said I think you should be more aggressive here as it will pay you out long term imo.

If we don't hit on the river and he flats all the way (assuming you made a bet big enough on the turn that isn't giving him the right price) then I might be inclined to believe that hes trying to let you hang yourself at this point and is free rolling with 10J or possibly a weirdly played set of Ks or 9s. However, if he did have the set though I doubt he would let more cards peel after the flop and would be clicking back for protection. Two pair is also a possibility too..

Either way I think if you check the turn villain is going to play the river much differently than if you bet it. But lets say you check the turn and we get to the river - I think it all depends on his bet sizing. Does he want a call or not? Is it a value bet? Thin value? Over bet ? In all honesty this is why I bet the turn, because if I brick off on the river and hes still lingering behind me I'm almost certain that he either has 2 junky pair that hes just in love with and holding on tightly to or actually has the goods. So at this point I think its time to check / fold because its best not to go broke with one pair.

Pokerjuice isnt recognizing the url for some reason.

Id check this turn vs a tight guy. his range is basicaly Kx,QJT,(9+,2):(JT+) meaning that he will very often have turned 2p/str8 here. tight guys are also very likely to slowplay K9+ on this texture very often so even tho we will probably only get raised off our hand by a small part of his range, were still not pushing eq vs the majority of it. assuming we cant make him fold a better hand ott by barreling, a bet has more cons than pros. the upside by betting is that we build the pot vs lower FDs, prevent him from bluffing us on the river, but that doesnt seem to be enough since there are so few fds in his range. i dont even think were ahead of his range ott, and def not once he calls.

vs the part of his range we are ahead of (Kx) we will have some of his 2p outs covered. after I check, im only putting more money in otr on flush cards, A,2 and vs some ppl who dont really think about why theyre betting but just bet oop with any marginal hand vs a check-check ill call on a Q/9 as well without further thought.

..Well are you going to show us the rest of the HH?

I edited my post to show results, for some reason I'm showing nicknames now too and can't seem to be able to edit it back to positions...

http://hh.pokerjuice.com/hh/qHYmutSTZo

so i removed 99 otf, as i dont wanna give the impression that i think all players like this slow play all sets every time.

but as you can see, well get x-red 20% of the time by the nuts, 50% of the time he will x-c with a better hand (92+), or 49% if he x-f 92 but vs that range we have 30% eq. and then 30% of the time we will have the best hand and have 78% eq and he will either just x-f or xc with the very few FDs in his range (if we assigned him the correct range he will only have a FD 8% of the time).

having a look at the equity distribution otr vs that range...the cards i listed previously are the good ones. our eq is deceivingly good on Q/9 but since its hard for him to need to bluff those cards otr if we check back turn, it wont matter since Kx might not need to bluff but vs some1 that just auto bets those cards are a call as well.

as far as calculating our EV for the different outcomes, i cant help you...i dont know of a program like that for PLO and tbh i dont know how much it would help us (with the accuracy) when we can clearly see that we are behind his range as soon as that turn card falls.

with a great read tho that this villain x-r K9+ 100%, a turn bet seems less unattractive than it is vs a range that includes slow plays.

^ which is kind of the opposite of what you said in your first post.

standard turn check back as long as you know what river cards you're bluff catching. (I'd bluff catch low board pairs and A's and obvious value bet or raise hearts).

you have decent equity against his range, but won't get action from worse (there are almost no single pair hands that are calling a barrel on this turn). So if we bet and get x/r we may get blown off of our equity.