As played just pot get it in here. I think the best line on this board is just to go with it.

Just ran the hand in PokerJuice which support PastyWhiteDonkey's conclusion, that pot get it in here seems to be the best play on the turn, since you have 66% vs. his range and you just need ~37%:

I have used the following ranges for Villain, which preflop is opened 20% but is not 4betting. On flop he continues with all hands that have a pair or better or a nutshot or better, but I am excluding his stack off range which would be something like all 2 pairs or better, all wraps and all pair + gutshots or better.

As you can see below even if he plays correct vs. your perceived shoving range (AA+,4:32+,AKQ+: Aces, Wraps and Pair+GS) he would have to get it in 75% of the time with an average EQ of 68% in your favor, so you are more value shoving than depending on FE!

So all in all I think that it is a big mistake to XF but XR have some merits too if you believe he would stab almost always because you then get it in vs. a much weaker range than when you pot.

Link to PKJ file

/Nikolaj

Just gonna add:

1) I would personally pot this flop to give you a SPR=~1 on the turn if he calls. I think it is dry enough for you to be able to pot it with most of your range and he only have a stack off range (64+,4+:32+,532+) ~21% of the time +

2) You can actually call it of if he shoves vs your cbet with a perceived stack off range of 64+,4+:32+,532+ (you have 41% EQ vs. that subrange and only need ~34%).

Wow ok that's very interesting, I think as a NL player in PLO I'm always worrying about overplaying AA. Thanks for the response.

Excellent analysis Nikolaj. I think the ev of a turn bet will be lowered a little since i see the majority of players slow playing sets on the flop on this texture. Wont make a big diff tho since there are few combos of sets on this flop.

Agree with flop sizing, if were gonna bet we should pot with this hand and this spr

When you assign 4+ for range B, does it also include any pocket pair higher than 4s?

sirin and spassewr: You might be right about majority slowplaying when they have a set here, but also that it does not change the conclusion since it only happens 5% of times. I think however that if you include sets into calling range then XR range becomes too weak. And since hero has to stack off with acces vs SOR of 64+,4+:32+,532+ then I don't see a reason to slowplay sets here.

Vatal: Yes 4+ also includes pocket pairs whereas around 10% has 77-TT without a GS. Some of them are doubled paired of have doubled BD draws so they would probably be calling but the remaining ~5% are probably folding - so it would have been more accurate to exclude them!

Here is an updated PKJ file with the input above.

I know that this thread is three weeks old, but I'm going to comment anyway. I agree with your suspicion that you overplayed your hand here.

Where I believe you made a mistake was raising from the small blind. Unless you have a wider than normal three bet range out of the SB AND your opponent is smart enough to know this, you just told your opponent what your hand is. He 100% already knows on the flop whether or not he should be calling/raising/folding, and he is unlikely to be making mistakes.

By simply calling preflop, you disguise your hand and widen the range of hands the villain can perceive you have. This allows you to represent a wider range of hands, play a wider range of flops effectively, provides him with a greater opportunity to make an expensive mistake, and you give yourself some wiggle room to make more nuanced decisions.

Thant being said, once you decided to three bet out of the SB and that particular flop comes out, you are pretty committed yourself to the Pot-flop, pot-turn line.

At the end of the day, I think calling out of the SB will be more profitable across a wider variety of flops with much less variance.