200 PLO 4Bet pot, flop decision.
Posted by MB
Posted by
MB
posted in
Mid Stakes
200 PLO 4Bet pot, flop decision.
SB: $277.70 (Hero)
BB: $163.93
HJ: $203.55
CO: $271.42
BN: $510.35
BB: $163.93
HJ: $203.55
CO: $271.42
BN: $510.35
Preflop
($3.00)
(5 Players)
Hero was dealt
5
K
K
Q
HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $4, Hero raises to $14, BB folds, BN raises to $44, Hero calls $30
HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $4, Hero raises to $14, BB folds, BN raises to $44, Hero calls $30
Flop
($95.00)
7
Q
3
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BN bets $58
Do you like calling or 5Betting?
OTF we don't have enough equity to go with it vs a very tight range (AA, KQJT-QJT9) but folding this flop just seems like we're going to be x/f a ton.
Kinda lost in this spot, any help is appreciated.
Loading 5 Comments...
Why on earth would he 4bet KQJT-QJT9 preflop?
You flop one of the top flops you can hope to flop, pair+overpair+two backdoor flushdraws, and you're still not happy.
As played I think x/jamming the flop is easily best play.
7/50=7.14% 4bet freq. So ~7% of his opening range he's 4betting. Vs a 65% btn opening range, 4betting 7% of that range, he's got 4.6% of hands. AA** and AKK*=~2.22% of hands when you take into account the fact that you have two K's. So that means the other half of his range is going to be !AA,!AKK combos.
If we just PPT the top 5% of hands equity wise vs KKQ5hhss, your equity is around 40%, so strong enough to call the 4bet, but not quite good enough to jam, assuming he never folds to a 5bet(which is debatable).
Flop seems like the easiest CRAI ever. Vs the top 5% of hands on this flop you have 38%. You need 42% to get it in, assuming you have no fold equity. If his range is wider than 5%, which seems pretty likely if you think KQJT/QJT9 are 4betting, then this is a pretty slam dunk get it in on this flop.
We can do the math to check. The problem is similar to calling a 4B against exactly AA after 3-betting, planning to stack off on the best flops. We're stacking off on the flops we hit hard enough, and then the question is: Do we hit enough flops hard enough to call the 4B profitably?
We can start with the assumption that Villain only 4-bets AA, and that we call to outflop AA. That's a worst case for us and gives us a lower bound for the EV of calling the 4B. Then we can loosen up Villain's range and refine the model.
Looks like a nice learning exercise to do in Odds Oracle, and I think we can get the result computed directly now (instead of having to fiddle around with flop equity distribution graphs/area under graph/numerical integration etc). I haven't gotten around to learning all the advanced PQL-stuff in OO yet, but I might look at this hand later today or tomorrow. Will post results if i do.
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