2-5 zoom 3bet pot peel or fold flop vs. big bet
Posted by Lausbub
Posted by
Lausbub
posted in
Mid Stakes
2-5 zoom 3bet pot peel or fold flop vs. big bet
Blinds: $2.50/$5.00 (6 Players)
BN: $500.00 (Hero)
SB: $441.30
BB: $2648.99
UTG: $538.32
MP: $1951.61
CO: $868.59
SB: $441.30
BB: $2648.99
UTG: $538.32
MP: $1951.61
CO: $868.59
Preflop
($7.50)
Hero is BN with
K
5
J
Q
, , , ,
Flop
($112.50)
T
7
5
,
so we can stack off on any 5, 9, J, Q, K, (A)? and fd and have to fold on a 2,3,4,6,7,8,T non Diamonds and non spades. When we fold the turn we lose 82$ and on the good turns we risk 362 to win a pot of 1001. So now I need to figure out how much equity I have on various runouts when I can get it in? On the turn I need a Minimum of 36,1% equity to stack off, which I have about 50 % of the times vs. a AA only range.
http://propokertools.com/simulations/graph?b=ts7d5c&g=oh&h1=kdqsjd5s&h2=aa%2A%2A&s=generic
looking at the graph of the link it seems like at first glance I have about 50-55% equity on average vs. his range when we get it in on the turn. Is this total bullshit? :) Is there a good way to make a good/quick mathematical guess how much our average equity is on the turn once we get it in? So on 50% of the times we fold on turns and lose -82. The other 50% of the time we risk 362 to win 1001 and have an average equity of 52.5% (Do I have to substract the $82 Investment of the flop here too somehow?). So the math would be 0,5*-82+0,5*((0,52*1001)-362)=-41+79,26= Peeling here is good. Sorry if I made very newby mistakes, I sure have to get better at the math part of the game and would appreciate your help!
Cheers
http://propokertools.com/simulations/graph?b=ts7d5c&g=oh&h1=kdqsjd5s&h2=aa%2A%2A&s=generic
looking at the graph of the link it seems like at first glance I have about 50-55% equity on average vs. his range when we get it in on the turn. Is this total bullshit? :) Is there a good way to make a good/quick mathematical guess how much our average equity is on the turn once we get it in? So on 50% of the times we fold on turns and lose -82. The other 50% of the time we risk 362 to win 1001 and have an average equity of 52.5% (Do I have to substract the $82 Investment of the flop here too somehow?). So the math would be 0,5*-82+0,5*((0,52*1001)-362)=-41+79,26= Peeling here is good. Sorry if I made very newby mistakes, I sure have to get better at the math part of the game and would appreciate your help!
Cheers
Turn
($277.04)
T
7
5
3
,
Final Pot
BB wins $274.24
Rake is $2.80
Rake is $2.80
Loading 10 Comments...
Any reads on Villain regarding 3betting/cbetting? With some more infos I'd run a peel&stackoff sim in PJ.
First results with somewhat tight preflop range and having him cbet 100% (which is the info I have) we net a pretty fair amount of money by shoving, about 2,5x as much as our share in the pot is.
Assuming villain is shoving any turn if we peel (which might not be the case but is for me to difficult to analyze) we net 2,3bb by peeling and stacking off on a "good" turn, equity destribution is such that we have 55% equity vs his range when we stack off, folding about 51,5% to his shove.
So for now shoving seems to be better than peeling and both options are better than folding. Those numbers might change once we have a more precise idea about his range.
okay interesting. Do we net more by shoving because we sometimes win at Showdown against a Hand like 6543? But that is probably not in his range. Sorry maybe it is obvious but right now I dont get why. Could you or anyone else explain me why? (The logic behind it)
What does the stack off percentage 44,84% and the folding percentage Not available 56% mean?
Assuming we have 0% fold equity we need 445/1001 = 44,45% equity to stack off here which is less than the 39% Pokerjuice is indicating. I dont think air is betting here esp. not this big, so shoving seems only good with fe, right? Or did you do something wrong with your analasys?
Simply look for some videos on PokerJuice (on their homepage or youtube), to explain everything would kinda take a bit long and isnt necessary from my part.
Shortly:
I gave villain a 8% 3bettingrange for 3betting OOP, since this board is pretty fine for his range I don't think we shoud expect to check here too much. Also don't understand why you say this is a big and committing sizing, he cbets around 75% pot which is a pretty normal sizing in this spot, I'd concider big everything $100+ here, which still wouldn't be committing but more scary.
I then went ahead and gave us a range for shoving, and with him responding perfectly to that strategy would have him fold about 55% of the time. Our GII equity would be 36% on average, which is less than the 44,4% we need, but we make up for it by having him fold to our shove somewhat frequently. The total EV of our shove then sums up to about 72$ or about 15bb.
okay thank you. I am stil a bit surprised this should be a common spot to cbet with "air" but yeah I can see us folding a bunch of Hands that makes cbetting okay. Could you tell me though which Hands are goin to bet /fold in a 8% range? I dont see any, maybe ABBx ds without a T.
Once he bets this size he needs ~~36,5% equity
There is gonna be a bunch of AAxx and some other hands he has to b/f here, I will adjust the stackoffrange and add the two pair hands, and also see how his EV is gonna change.
mmm I don't think people bet fold AA here. Can you do calcs for AA always stacking off? I think if people go for bet folds with AA they rather bet a more polar size like half pot ~~ do you/someone else disagree?
Flop is a call obv, K or Q gives you an easy turn stack off, a Jack is a good card a well and you can bluff / semi bluff a lot of the straight completing cards if villain checks turn. Not to mention you have 2 x BDFD
so you disagree with Edgekings analasys? Did you read it?
Easy call on the flop, raising seems a sizable mistake unless villain is very exploitable.
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