1/2 250bb deep

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

1/2 250bb deep

BB: $567.55 (Hero)
UTG: $651.95
HJ: $900.40
CO: $200
BN: $301.80
SB: $202.75
Flop ($90.00) Q 9 2 (2 Players)
Hero bets $56, HJ calls $56
Turn ($202.00) 7 (2 Players)
Hero bets $146, HJ calls $146
River ($494.00) 6 (2 Players)
Final Pot
Hero has A Q K T
I don't know why preflop isn't showing but HJ raised a fish who limped in and HJ was the only one to call my 3bet.

HJ seems solid but no real reads over 124 hands. 30/26, 14% 3bet, fold to 3bet 20%.
fold 20% to flop c-bet and 0% to turn on a small sample. High aggro percentage and barrels alot.

I think flop and turn are pretty standard bets. There can be reasons for other lines of course.
I dunno if I can get him off any 2pairs by betting the river. Given my perceived narrow range I wont smack the board too often except for a medium rundown w T8.

By the turn and river I look like Aces with a flush/straight draw or a wrap with Q9/Q/9.

I Think he would have shipped any set and most 2pairs on the turn and that his range after calling turn is wraps, pair+straight draw, Pair+gutter+fd type of hands.

On the river I have no clue what to do. In my mind all plays have some merit.

3 Comments

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phil long 12 years, 3 months ago
dont think betting as a bluff is good, apart from maybe KKx that had some sort of draw cant really see many better hands folding. So then if you bet are you good more than 50% of the time when called? IMO i would think that almost certainly not, the range of hands that gets to this river that are worse than yours and then hero calls is very slim. So together this makes it a clear check. The question is whether to xc, or xf and that is a much tougher question. I cant give you a conclusive answer but you need to think about how likely he is to have air and bluff with it, and how thinly he is going to valuebet. My instincy is that all str8s and something like Q6 is the bottom of his value range. Dont think most people bluff with KKxx or Qxxx on the river at 1/2. So does he have worse often enough and bluff with it
Scudmissil 12 years, 3 months ago
I agree with betting not being great for the reasons you mentioned. The most likely 2 pair is Q6 which I don't think he will fold.

In my experience most aggro regs will bluff with a one pair realizing its almost never good. The river is so much better for his range than my perceived range.

About the hands that I beat - I'm not sure he would call twice with like QJTx, JT9x but probably KJTx. Some pair+gutter that turned a flushdraw would call turn aswell.
MajaIvarsson99 12 years, 3 months ago
Looks like a rather easy check to me, then you have to soulread. He has a fair bit of missed straights with just one pair and I don't think he'll bet many 2p considering how Q9 probably raises turn a lot. Try to get an idea by his timing and bet sizes. I think mostly fold vs 1/2-regs except the spazzy ones.

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