[10z] BU vs SB 3bet with bottom set
Posted by Kerith
Posted by Kerith posted in Low Stakes
[10z] BU vs SB 3bet with bottom set
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players)
BN: $32.52 (Hero)
SB: $14.47
BB: $20.55
UTG: $10.00
MP: $9.80
CO: $9.32
SB: $14.47
BB: $20.55
UTG: $10.00
MP: $9.80
CO: $9.32
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is BN with
6
2
2
K
, , , ,
Would you ever fold to a 3bet here? With an SPR of 9 and a (usually) very tight 3betting range, can we make Villains life hard on enough run outs to call even with a garbage tier hand? I think so.
Flop
($1.62)
Q
T
2
,
Not the best of flops considering that Villain is willing to pot although in my experience some people at these stakes do that habitually even when they give up on any turn.
Aside: I tried finding out how often Villain has different hand types using PQL but I did not find a way to compute how often he has, say aces with a flush draw since, as far as I can tell, PQL can't differentiate between different kinds of "no pair". However, if I make the turn card a club it says that a 5% range for example has 24.51% flushes which must also mean that the same range has 24.51% flush draws on the flop, right? This is in contrast to 5.68% sets OTF.
Aside: I tried finding out how often Villain has different hand types using PQL but I did not find a way to compute how often he has, say aces with a flush draw since, as far as I can tell, PQL can't differentiate between different kinds of "no pair". However, if I make the turn card a club it says that a 5% range for example has 24.51% flushes which must also mean that the same range has 24.51% flush draws on the flop, right? This is in contrast to 5.68% sets OTF.
Turn
($4.72)
Q
T
2
J
,
Looking back, I definitely overestimated the effect my blocker has although I still like the idea of drawing the line at calling with K blocker / no club blocker and folding with no K blocker / club blocker. After doing some simulations I get between about 33%-43% equity depending most heavy on whether he pots flop with "dry" AK (unlikely which is good for me) and whether he pots turn with a QQ/TT (likely).
Using PQL I get that a 5% range has about 30% each flush draws and straights on this turn with 7% sets. It would be really great if someone would check my simulation and PQL work since I am just getting used to using them.
Using PQL I get that a 5% range has about 30% each flush draws and straights on this turn with 7% sets. It would be really great if someone would check my simulation and PQL work since I am just getting used to using them.
River
($13.76)
Q
T
2
J
6
,
If we made it here we made the assumption that he can make AAcc blocker (semi) bluffs and probably need to call it off, right?
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