you aren't using proper logic imo, you have the nuts, you go for check raise there

I know you don't have significant redraw, which would be way better, yet, you can't have that  many hands that are same times nuts with redraw - those you can play slower

You are 65 percent equity against hand with a set, so, go for it

You can't wait perfect nuts with redraws to play poker

llol . well. hand is multiway so really half of ppl in your pot for sure have no idea what balance is

use that plays in HU pots with very aggressive villains

and get value , you play to get value!!! keep that in mind

Redraw with ace is only 6 percent better then your hand, 53/46 percent, and id say HJ has str8 and btn wh u re playing side pot with maybe squeezing with equity behind urs

Umm..thinking about it now again, answer to this situation is pure maths shouldn't be speculation

Only correct thing to do is simply to do whole EV for that particular spot, because you wil be often in similar situation

:P if you do, share, I'm lazy atm

I like your play, for all the reasons you gave. I play exactly the same way here. 

I think this is probably a fold now. 

I've spent the last 15mins running sims and it is hard to find ranges for villains which give us more than 30%. 

If we put BTN on KJ:20% (reasonable? he seems pretty tight), then we are in trouble.

Vs KJ:20% we have 45%

Vs KJ:20% for BTN and (KJ,QQ,TT,J8):(30%) for KJ we have 33.7%, and who knows if HJ is playing this way with his J8's .... if he isn't things get really bad

This adds up to us losing money :(

how likely is that both players have KJ?

not sure ... I gave HJ sets + J8 too ... and we are still not doing well enough. Btn seems pretty tight, seems like wishful thinking to expect him to play J8,QQ like this.

did u do whole ev for the spot?

cause one shoulda have set other kj ( with possible redraw ) so we re 61 vs set and out of that 61 we have some 5-wish possible loss on account of redraw and what if 1 have 1 hand and other the other ( and reverse should change ev as well )

i dont understand your analysis. It is definitely not true to say that one should have a set, and the other should have KJ. They both have KJ in their range.

I think that given btn's tight stats, and his line (Pot when he has the opportunity to close the action and see a free turn card) he probably has KJ every time, so I give btn a range of KJ:20%.

If we give HJ a range of (KJ,QQ,TT,J8):(30%) (So any straight, top two sets AND 30%)

then we have 33% of the main pot, and 45% of the side pot. 

.33*30 + .45*17.60 - 17.45 = +0.37. This does not take the huge rake into account, with rake this is negative EV.

Personally, I think my range for HJ is probably too wide as it is, and if we tighten it up our situation deteriorates......or maybe im being way too pessimistic :)

Obv borderline :) yet not minus, and its not like one of them wil have redraw to higher 100 percent and in case one doesn't have set or kj but something silly like j9 or tjq it maybe even better +ev

I like how you played it and would take the same line. I'd also fold this now.

My question would be whether we actually have a c-betting range here? If we're at all concerned with balance I'd play my range like that: c/f air, c/c bare nuts/sets/maybe some AK/QT with backdoors, c/r nuts+redraw

Opinions?