10/20 HU vs jungle, tough turn spot
Posted by jedimaster82
Posted by jedimaster82 posted in High Stakes
10/20 HU vs jungle, tough turn spot
SB: jedimaster82: $2867.75
jedimaster82 raises to $40, w00ki3z. raises to $120, jedimaster82 calls $80
I found myself in a rather tricky turnspot yesterday vs jungle as I feel all three options we have are semi-viable.
Folding: Since jungle is far from a nit, folding feels a bit dirty. Especially since we are blocking 6x-2pairs and blocking the straights. Since the other 2 options aren't so sexy either though, it might be the best option.
Calling: Calling isn't great either as our bluff outs aren't great (bluffing diamonds isnt great as: we don't have a diamond in our hand, he could check a flush otr to induce, we didn't raise the flop which we would do with alot of flushdr. combos) and our implied odds are not great either as we are only looking for an offsuit 7,2,6,4 or K and while the offsuit 2 and 7 might get us an extra bet, the offsuit K,6 and 4 might give us a thin valuebet but could also give us negative implied odds. Buffing J,5,3 is possible but not great.
Shipping: It is very hard to figure out how much fold equity we have here by shipping. I'm certain that jungle bet/folds here a decent amount since he should expect a good amount of fold equity himself. But estimating how often he bet/folds is really hard and could be anywhere between 15-40%. If I at gunpoint had to guess a more exact number it would be in the early 20s, perhaps 22-25% (it could very well be higher). I'm not a PPT expert and I can't intuitively figure out wheather it is good or bad (probably slightly bad in a vacuum, perhaps good for our overall game). Input?
Some info on jungle:
* 3bets about 21%
* his turncbetting range on this board, I think, is rather linear (meaning I think he will continue with J3xx,J5xx etc.)
* he could possibly fold some of the "merged" hands in his range but that is another uncertainty
* I think he saves his aggression a bit for 3bet pots to distort the balance of his perceived range for his opponents
* Dubbelbarrels at a very high freq in 3bet pots
* his bet/get in range will be sets, strong draws, pairs with strong draws, the occasional str8, maybe strong 2pairs.
* I think he will often go for c/r or c/c with str8s here. Combine that with our blockers I think he rarely has a str8.
Some input would be very much appreciated. I hate poker.
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