10/20 Gross river after we c/r turn

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10/20 Gross river after we c/r turn

Villain's a reg, playing 45/29 in this three-handed game so far. No big showdown history between us yet.
Seems like such a good spot to turn a T8 or KT into a bluff on this river, although we can probably discount some KT since many of them would shove turn (feel free to challenge me on this assumption tho). How do we go about analyzing this spot?

BU: $3,230.02 (162 bb)
SB (Hero): $4,083.54 (204 bb)
BB: $2,158.46 (108 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($30) Hero is SB with K♦ 9♠ T♠ 3♦
BTN raises to $60, Hero calls $50, 1 fold

Flop: ($140) Q♠ 9♣ 2♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $80, Hero calls $80

Turn: ($300) J♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $280, Hero raises to $1,140, BTN calls $860

River: ($2,580) 2♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1,950.02 (all-in), Hero ...

7 Comments

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impregnatio 6 years ago

think most players make that call pre flop. folding that three handed seems ridic. often agree with plolearnerguy but not here. river spot interesting... getting 2.3-1 on a call. block set of 9s, QQxx and JJxx and unlikely two pair with a 2 that river boat have hero beat but missed fd/combo draw certainly possible; even a straight with no redraws that wants hero to fold (and/or bluff a scare card river). without knowing more about villain I think a call at that price is warranted.

any thoughts (i) on villains relatively small flop size bet (just over half pot) and much larger turn bet (almost pot)? (ii) hero check three streets... villain thinks c/r bluff on turn? or what does villain make of hero's line?

impregnatio 6 years ago

Why I think a call is warranted - If, 60% of villain range is full house; 30% is busted draw; 5% is a chop; 5% is worse straight, Then hero is good 35%. Price is about 2.323-1.
60% lose $1,950.02
35% win (outright) $4,530.02
5% win (chop) $1,290.00
Can fold if putting villain range of FH at something like 70%
(esp if hero win/chop at 25% / 5%)

Leatherass 6 years ago

I’d probably tank/call here. I think you’re chopping a fair bit and he’s got to have some hands where he’s drawing with the plan of bluffing rivers when checked to, especially board pairing. Not a fun call but I think it’s definitely making money at this price.

Cory Mikesell 4 years, 9 months ago

I call river. JJ is discounted from his range, 99 is discounted from his range thanks to our blocker and many 6 max players 3B flop with too much value. The Q2/J2/92 are also all discounted for various reasons, while versions of QJ/Q9 are definitely available to him on the river.

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