10/20 at Aria - Bet or Check When Deep?
Posted by John Beauprez
Posted by
John Beauprez
posted in
High Stakes
10/20 at Aria - Bet or Check When Deep?
Hey guys!
Got one here that I played last week that I'd like some input on plz :)
10/20 live at Aria. Have only played an hour or so and have a good image. Open 40 UTG AhAcQsJd, kid who has been really tight overall but is clearly competent 3b's to 140. Weaker player with 1200 cold calls from MP, loose kid calls from the SB. I 4b to 700, both kids call and MP folds.
Flop (2240) KhQh3c first kid checks I c-bet 1450. After less than five seconds kid on my left announces all in for 7500 (I cover). SB kid folds (he had 6k to begin hand).
In retrospect I don't like the four-bet too much because of the stacks. My real question is about the flop play. Do you like c-betting here? And if so, do you prefer pot/gii, c-bet with my sizing gii, or check and evaluate?
I thought this was a really interesting hand because of the stack sizes and Ah blocker, so figured it would spur some good discussion as to what's best here. Looking forward to hearing your replies!
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Interesting hand that I would like to hear opinions about as well. What about the option of c-betting around 1/3 pot and folding to a raise?
I've only played these stakes a handful of times, but isn't the line you are suggesting just incredibly weak looking? I'd expect you to get raise-bluffed quite frequently.
I wouldn't expect to get bluff-raised here. The 3bettor is handcuffed because he has to worry about SB having a hand, along with the possibility of us having a monster+redraw. It could get really dicey/expensive for SB to try c/r bluff oop here as well. Would you bluff-raise many hands if you were in either of the villain's shoes? I don't see a small bet (when we have the Ah) getting exploited here, especially when we can balance that small bet with the uber nuts.
I wouldn't raise bluff with complete air, but I would absolutely take a stab at it if I have some reasonable outs and I am the kid on your left. You appear to be a good player, so I'm going to assume you can fold. This looks like a situation where I can raise bluff a relatively small amount and still appear super strong. As far as the other player is concerned, he is loose and originally the fourth person into the hand so his range is super wide and filled with garbage that can easily have missed this flop.
Cbet sizing in live PLO isn't that big of a deal. Yes, some players can pick up on sizing and equate weakness but that's very rare and they have to be very good. The thing about live is that its always multiway so even if someone has a read on your sizing he still needs to get through the rest of the players in the hand.
If you had KKxx or QQxx hands in your 4 betting range then your sizing can mean anything. So I would bet smaller or even check. The K and Q are bad cards for your 4 betting range vs a 3 bet and 4 caller. You basically turn your hand over as AAxx (usually GOOD AAxx) and now villain can profitably call the 4. Now if the villain knows you have AA and you will cbet the majority of flops then he is in a great spot and can get it in so good vs you.
For him to 3 bet you and you say he is tight he has KK, QQ, AKQJ type hands here. Now discount the Ah and he has JT, JTKQ type hands.
I fold flop. I bet smaller on flop. And I 4 bet smaller preflop. I try to size it so that MP w $1200 can decide to shove if he wants and its open back to you.
I think getting it in is okay but we're not really that happy.
Because we have no suit, I think a call may be better because of the stack sizes instead of a 4B.
When we 4B, I feel like 4B ranges have so many Aces in them so when the flop is King high and he didn't 5B, I'm worried he has a set a lot of the time when he shoves. Maybe a set and a flush draw or gutshot which we do horrible against that GII range.
You said your read was he was a tight so when he shoves, what are we beating with our holding? I don't think we're ahead of anything. And he won't bluff us out here even in HU because this hits our 4B range hard.
I think check/call is okay because on turn we may improve but also he won't just fire away with low equity hands this deep vs our range. There are a lot of cards that may slow him down on turns and help us get to showdown.
If we decide to bet, I think a smaller bet is okay because he won't be bluff raising much since this smacks our range. He may believe we are trapping and won't just assume a small bet is just weakness.
The Ah blocker makes this a bet but I think without the Ah, we should check/decide. I also think if we bet smaller, we will have more control and minimize our losses if the board pairs with a K or Q which hurts our hand a lot. When we bet small, we induce weaker flushes to call as well getting more value when we have it and more value when we finally fire rivers with our nut blocker.
Personally i don't like the cbet, too high a chance of being against a set here from either of the player. I don't see what a cbet accomplishes, you're giving both of them nice odds to draw. Same thing with a smaller one : you're not protecting against anything : even with low hearts (8h9h, 6h7h...) either one of them can peel hoping to win at SD if improved or bluff some cards (mainly K,Q, or even a blank to rep KQ)
This flop is really bad for a 4bet range so you don't really need to worry about being exploited in these spots as they rarely happens and it's gonna even out.
So check/decide is imho the way to go.
As played i would lean towards of call though a simulation will probably deny my intuition. The reason that leads towards a call rely on two points.
1)You said he's a tight player, you block a Q, so a) he won't have all the KK that wants to 3bet; b) there's not much good QQ* left.
2) he knows that he can rep KK here (especially if he's blocking one), and that you range don't really hit this board and he can't get away with it. As for the other player, he can have pretty much anything at this point, his range isn't really that strong. This assumption is one of the keys of the hand : will he expect you to bet here with naked AA, or at least some thing like you have or AAQ or AAK... ? Or would he assume that you only bet AAhh*? In that case, he most definitely will not shove with one of hands that i mentioned before.
I couldnt find where u said ur initial stack and this is pretty relevant to determine right play
he covers everyone : "After less than five seconds kid on my left announces all in for 7500 (I cover). SB kid folds (he had 6k to begin hand)"
as played, you block most of draw hands villian could gii, and adding reads, i would be b/f this flops. I would try a smaller sizing tho
Call pre.
As played I think your bet/fold is fine.
Agree with Sauce on calling pre.
On this flop... I don't know... Intuitively I really dislike bet-folding because I expect to get shoved on over 70% of the time.
Blocking the Ah and the Q make it better as a bet-fold, as you'd be getting even fewer folds without them. Still, you're likely not going to have a ton of KKxx or QQxx. For that reason, I don't see Kx or Qx with JT or hearts+gutter to shy away from shoving. Add that to all the KK/QQ/KQ you run into - especially from the competent/tight kid - and I think you're getting too much action to b/f.
So eliminating bet-fold would leave checking or bet-calling. I think we probably don't get to bet-call with these stacks, so I'm voting for check-decide (probably fold to any large bet).
Edit: Couple more thoughts-
You may get the flop checked around when you're up against pair+fd (esp when you have the Ah) as they will fear the x/r.
If we aren't 4-betting this hand, I wonder what our 4-bet range ends up looking like. Probably doublesuited and/or very connected AA, and double-suited mid-high rundowns (potentially some ds KK?). This would mean that you actually do fairly well on this board, compared to doing very poorly if your 4-bet range is mostly AA**.
3 * 1450 + 2240 < 7,5K
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